luckadjusted

Week 10 2021 · November 14, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Packers, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Seahawks 17–0 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Packers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:53 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 16 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 0
Green Bay Packers 17

November 14, 2021 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −3

Luck index +21 Packers about even · −21 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 2, Packers win 8.

  1. 1 SEA 26 GB 13
  2. 2 SEA 16 GB 13
  3. 3 SEA 17 GB 19
  4. 4 SEA 24 GB 29
  5. 5 SEA 20 GB 28
  6. 6 SEA 17 GB 28
  7. 7 SEA 6 GB 20
  8. 8 SEA 0 GB 16
  9. 9 SEA 10 GB 30
  10. 10 SEA 3 GB 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 21% of them, Packers 79%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+2.2%
Seahawks by 9–165.8%
Seahawks by 1–810.8%
Level after regulation3.2%
Packers by 1–825.9%
Packers by 9–1620.7%
Packers by 17+31.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.5 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Packers by 17, without the luck Packers by 25.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 42 yds missed · 80% expected
  • M. Crosby, 27 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 5 for 39 yards, Packers 3 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:47 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% SEA +1.9 pts
Q1 5:40 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers, 24 yards +4% SEA +1.7 pts
Q2 4:54 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Ugo Amadi), 5 yards +5% GB +1.0 pts
Q2 0:08 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +5% GB +0.9 pts
Q3 12:14 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 9 yards, wiping out the play +8% SEA +2.1 pts
Q4 15:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.5 pts
Q4 14:56 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks (Carlos Dunlap), 15 yards +6% GB +1.8 pts
Q4 3:42 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Alton Robinson), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.9 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:12 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +13% GB GB: Missed field goal
2 Q1 10:53 M. Crosby missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +8% SEA GB: Punt
3 Q2 7:52 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% GB SEA: Punt
4 Q2 4:06 The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% GB GB: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 0:50 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% SEA SEA: End of half
6 Q3 12:14 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% SEA SEA: Turnover
7 Q3 7:53 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +16% GB SEA: Punt
8 Q3 2:39 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +14% SEA GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Myers (GB C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Robert Tonyan (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kingsley Keke (GB DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Chris Carson (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 0% · Packers 100%

Final margin
Packers by 17
Luck in points
8.5 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 25.5
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 21% · Packers 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · Seahawks · Packers

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