luckadjusted

Week 10 2021 · November 14, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Chargers, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Chargers 27–20, but the Chargers played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:32 left): the Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 23 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 27
Los Angeles Chargers 20

November 14, 2021 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +76 Vikings very lucky · −76 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Chargers win 8.

  1. 1 MIN 20 LAC 7
  2. 2 MIN 13 LAC 10
  3. 3 MIN 31 LAC 33
  4. 4 MIN 31 LAC 35
  5. 5 MIN 17 LAC 24
  6. 6 MIN 14 LAC 24
  7. 7 MIN 38 LAC 51
  8. 8 MIN 14 LAC 31
  9. 9 MIN 20 LAC 41
  10. 10 MIN 7 LAC 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 24% of them, Chargers 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+3.0%
Vikings by 9–166.9%
Vikings by 1–813.8%
Level after regulation3.6%
Chargers by 1–825.1%
Chargers by 9–1623.0%
Chargers by 17+24.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.7 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Vikings by 7, without the luck Vikings by 18.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 46 yds made · 80% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 46 yds made · 80% expected
  • G. Joseph, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 24 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 10 for 118 yards, Chargers 7 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:21 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.5 pts
Q1 5:12 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 6 yards +3% LAC +1.1 pts
Q2 13:34 Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Patrick Jones II), 5 yards +1% MIN +0.2 pts
Q2 12:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Bashaud Breeland), 19 yards +8% LAC +1.2 pts
Q2 11:28 Taunting on the Chargers (Chris Rumph), 15 yards +4% MIN +1.5 pts
Q2 11:18 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +5% LAC +1.6 pts
Q2 11:18 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Justin Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.6 pts
Q2 7:57 Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.5 pts
Q2 6:51 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% LAC +3.5 pts
Q2 6:26 Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Kirk Cousins), 10 yards +3% LAC +0.9 pts
Q2 1:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Mackensie Alexander), 28 yards +7% LAC +2.8 pts
Q2 1:51 Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Everson Griffen), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% MIN +0.1 pts
Q3 10:40 Illegal Formation on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.5 pts
Q3 9:25 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 6 yards +2% MIN +0.5 pts
Q3 5:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 11 yards +12% MIN +2.2 pts
Q4 4:36 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +2% LAC +1.2 pts
Q4 2:57 Face Mask on the Vikings (Luke Stocker), 15 yards +1% LAC +1.2 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:32 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +23% LAC MIN: Field goal
2 Q2 12:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Bashaud Breeland), 19 yardsJudgment calls · 22 flags in 2410 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +8% LAC LAC: Field goal
3 Q2 10:55 The Vikings converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% MIN MIN: Field goal
4 Q2 6:51 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% LAC LAC: Turnover
5 Q3 5:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 11 yardsJudgment calls +12% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q3 2:39 The Vikings converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +11% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:12 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:23 The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Davis (LAC CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Nasir Adderley (LAC FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Drue Tranquill (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Oday Aboushi (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Patrick Peterson (MIN CB), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Harrison Smith (MIN SS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Garrett Bradbury (MIN C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 99% · Chargers 1%

Final margin
Vikings by 7
Luck in points
11.7 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 18.7
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 24% · Chargers 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · Vikings · Chargers

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