luckadjusted

Week 8 2021 · October 31, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Falcons, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Falcons 19–13, but the Falcons played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 14:15 left): Y. Koo missed 45-yard field goal, worth 18 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 19
Atlanta Falcons 13

October 31, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −2.5

Luck index +68 Panthers very lucky · −68 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Falcons win 7.

  1. 1 CAR 32 ATL 16
  2. 2 CAR 10 ATL 3
  3. 3 CAR 13 ATL 10
  4. 4 CAR 24 ATL 26
  5. 5 CAR 23 ATL 26
  6. 6 CAR 14 ATL 21
  7. 7 CAR 17 ATL 27
  8. 8 CAR 10 ATL 23
  9. 9 CAR 13 ATL 30
  10. 10 CAR 9 ATL 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 32% of them, Falcons 68%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+3.8%
Panthers by 9–168.8%
Panthers by 1–818.8%
Level after regulation2.4%
Falcons by 1–826.7%
Falcons by 9–1620.8%
Falcons by 17+18.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Panthers by 6, without the luck Panthers by 8.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 51 yds made · 66% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 57 yds made · 56% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 45 yds missed · 84% expected
  • Y. Koo, 53 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 8 for 76 yards, Falcons 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:48 False Start on the Panthers (Tommy Tremble), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.8 pts
Q1 2:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Keith Taylor), 13 yards +6% ATL +1.3 pts
Q1 2:04 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q2 10:30 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Ian Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% ATL +3.4 pts
Q2 7:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Stephon Gilmore), 8 yards +5% ATL +1.5 pts
Q2 2:50 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Jaylinn Hawkins), 5 yards +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q3 6:18 Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Steven Means), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.2 pts
Q3 2:20 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 15 yards +7% ATL +1.6 pts
Q4 6:35 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ATL +1.1 pts
Q4 1:52 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.3 pts
Q4 0:28 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 15 yards +1% ATL +0.7 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:30 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Ian Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1346 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +9% ATL ATL: Turnover
2 Q3 6:56 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% CAR CAR: Field goal
3 Q3 2:20 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1820 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +7% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
4 Q3 1:18 The Falcons fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
5 Q3 0:36 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
6 Q4 14:21 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +7% CAR ATL: Missed field goal
7 Q4 14:15 The game turned hereY. Koo missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him, 19 of 20 from 45+ before +18% CAR ATL: Punt
8 Q4 8:29 The Panthers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% CAR CAR: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Calvin Ridley (ATL WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Isaiah Oliver (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Gono (ATL T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dante Fowler (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Cominsky (ATL DE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Dante Fowler (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Nizialek (ATL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • John Miller (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Joseph Charlton (CAR P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 89% · Falcons 11%

Final margin
Panthers by 6
Luck in points
2.8 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 8.8
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 32% · Falcons 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · Panthers · Falcons

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