luckadjusted

Week 8 2021 · October 31, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Colts, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Colts 34–31, but the Colts played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 21 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Colts were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:33 left): Return touchdown by the Titans, worth 45 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final (OT)

Tennessee Titans 34
Indianapolis Colts 31

October 31, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −3

Luck index +62 Titans very lucky · −62 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 4, Colts win 6.

  1. 1 TEN 34 IND 14
  2. 2 TEN 41 IND 31
  3. 3 TEN 30 IND 24
  4. 4 TEN 36 IND 34
  5. 5 TEN 27 IND 29
  6. 6 TEN 14 IND 19
  7. 7 TEN 14 IND 21
  8. 8 TEN 10 IND 22
  9. 9 TEN 13 IND 29
  10. 10 TEN 16 IND 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 38% of them, Colts 62%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+7.6%
Titans by 9–1611.7%
Titans by 1–819.0%
Level after regulation2.9%
Colts by 1–825.9%
Colts by 9–1615.7%
Colts by 17+17.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.7 points to the Colts: the final margin was Titans by 3, without the luck Titans by 11.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • R. Bullock, 46 yds made · 76% expected
  • R. Bullock, 44 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 11 for 161 yards, Colts 9 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:44 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.7 pts
Q2 12:07 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans, 5 yards +1% IND +0.5 pts
Q2 12:01 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% TEN +3.0 pts
Q2 8:35 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (Grover Stewart), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.1 pts
Q2 3:37 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +4% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 1:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 12 yards +5% IND +0.7 pts
Q3 12:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (Kemoko Turay), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.8 pts
Q3 5:28 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Marcus Johnson), 6 yards +5% IND +1.5 pts
Q3 1:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Amani Hooker), 41 yards +16% IND +2.6 pts
Q3 0:45 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Kemoko Turay), 15 yards +4% TEN +1.3 pts
Q4 12:23 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% IND +2.6 pts
Q4 11:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yards +7% IND +1.9 pts
Q4 10:28 False Start on the Colts (Jonathan Taylor), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q4 8:35 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Chris Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +14% IND +2.5 pts
Q4 6:09 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +8% TEN +1.3 pts
Q4 3:17 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Chester Rogers), 10 yards, wiping out the play +15% IND +1.5 pts
Q4 1:08 Illegal Formation on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.4 pts
Q4 0:56 Illegal Use of Hands on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% TEN +1.2 pts
Q4 0:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kevin Byard), 42 yards +17% IND +4.4 pts
QOT 5:48 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans (A.J. Brown), 10 yards +16% IND +1.5 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 1:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Amani Hooker), 41 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1774 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +16% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q4 8:35 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Chris Jackson), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 552 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +14% IND IND: Punt
3 Q4 3:17 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Chester Rogers), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 711 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +15% IND IND: Opp touchdown
4 Q4 1:33 Return touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams +45% TEN TEN: Opp touchdown
5 Q4 0:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kevin Byard), 42 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3073 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +17% IND IND: Touchdown
6 QOT 9:06 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +13% TEN IND: Punt
7 QOT 5:48 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans (A.J. Brown), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1916 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +16% IND –
8 QOT 4:08 R. Bullock made 44-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him +17% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • T.J. Carrie (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rodrigo Blankenship (IND K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Parris Campbell (IND WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Julio Jones (TEN WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashaan Evans (TEN LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 89% · Colts 11%

Final margin
Titans by 3
Luck in points
8.7 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 11.7
Replay with same day's form
Titans 38% · Colts 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · Titans · Colts

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