Raiders 19 
Bengals 26 Deserved · Bengals win 70% of replays 2021 NFL season · January 15, 2022–January 17
Wild Card 2021: who deserved to win
Every winner of Wild Card earned it. The closest call: the Bengals won 26–19 and take 70% of replays.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Raiders 19 Bengals 26 Deserved · Bengals win 70% of replays 
Patriots 17 
Bills 47 Deserved · Bills win 94% of replays 
Eagles 15 
Buccaneers 31 Deserved · Buccaneers win 89% of replays 
49ers 23 
Cowboys 17 Deserved · 49ers win 87% of replays Off day for the Cowboys 52% to win a fresh game, 13% with this day’s form: offense far below its usual level. 
Steelers 21 
Chiefs 42 Deserved · Chiefs win 99% of replays 
Cardinals 11 
Rams 34 Deserved · Rams win 95% of replays Wild Card 2021 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 23–17 @ Cowboys | 41% | 87% | Deserved |
Luck ranking, wild card
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bengals | W 26–19 vs Raiders | 70% | +30 |
| 2 | 49ers | W 23–17 @ Cowboys | 87% | +13 |
| 3 | Buccaneers | W 31–15 vs Eagles | 89% | +11 |
| 4 | Bills | W 47–17 vs Patriots | 94% | +6 |
| 5 | Rams | W 34–11 vs Cardinals | 95% | +5 |
| 6 | Chiefs | W 42–21 vs Steelers | 99% | +1 |
| 7 | Steelers | L 21–42 @ Chiefs | 1% | −1 |
| 8 | Cardinals | L 11–34 @ Rams | 5% | −5 |
| 9 | Patriots | L 17–47 @ Bills | 6% | −6 |
| 10 | Eagles | L 15–31 @ Buccaneers | 11% | −11 |
| 11 | Cowboys | L 17–23 vs 49ers | 13% | −13 |
| 12 | Raiders | L 19–26 @ Bengals | 30% | −30 |