luckadjusted

Wild Card 2021 · January 15, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Bengals, Wild Card 2021: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Raiders 26–19 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:09 left): the Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 14 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 19
Cincinnati Bengals 26

January 15, 2022 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −6

Luck index +30 Bengals lucky · −30 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 3, Bengals win 7.

  1. 1 LV 34 CIN 17
  2. 2 LV 24 CIN 16
  3. 3 LV 37 CIN 34
  4. 4 LV 20 CIN 22
  5. 5 LV 16 CIN 20
  6. 6 LV 27 CIN 34
  7. 7 LV 6 CIN 16
  8. 8 LV 3 CIN 17
  9. 9 LV 11 CIN 28
  10. 10 LV 13 CIN 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 30% of them, Bengals 70%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+3.5%
Raiders by 9–167.4%
Raiders by 1–815.5%
Level after regulation4.5%
Bengals by 1–826.6%
Bengals by 9–1622.3%
Bengals by 17+20.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Bengals by 7, without the luck Bengals by 7.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 72% expected
  • E. McPherson, 31 yds made · 94% expected
  • E. McPherson, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Carlson, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • E. McPherson, 43 yds made · 78% expected
  • D. Carlson, 34 yds made · 91% expected
  • E. McPherson, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Carlson, 28 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 7 for 46 yards, Bengals 7 for 56 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:39 False Start on the Raiders (Darren Waller), 4 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.9 pts
Q1 3:47 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.6 pts
Q1 1:44 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.8 pts
Q1 0:39 False Start on the Raiders, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.1 pts
Q2 0:46 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Eli Apple), 5 yards +1% LV +0.7 pts
Q3 12:03 Illegal Formation on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +1.0 pts
Q3 7:53 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bengals, 10 yards +2% LV +0.9 pts
Q3 6:47 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% CIN +4.1 pts
Q3 3:04 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +5% CIN +1.8 pts
Q3 1:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Vernon Hargreaves III), 11 yards +11% LV +4.1 pts
Q3 0:32 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% CIN +1.8 pts
Q4 6:11 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% CIN +2.4 pts
Q4 5:54 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 5 yards +1% LV +1.2 pts
Q4 1:51 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Khalid Kareem), 15 yards +8% LV +1.7 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:58 The Raiders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +9% LV LV: Field goal
2 Q1 3:09 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% CIN LV: Punt
3 Q3 6:47 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% CIN CIN: Field goal
4 Q3 1:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Vernon Hargreaves III), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2464 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +11% LV LV: Field goal
5 Q4 1:51 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Khalid Kareem), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 464 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +8% LV LV: Turnover
6 Q4 1:16 The Raiders converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +11% LV LV: Turnover
7 Q4 0:45 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% LV LV: Turnover
8 Q4 0:17 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% CIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Riley Reiff (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Johnathan Abram (LV SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 22% · Bengals 78%

Final margin
Bengals by 7
Luck in points
0.3 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 7.3
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 30% · Bengals 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2021 games · Raiders · Bengals

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