luckadjusted

Wild Card 2021 · January 16, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Buccaneers, Wild Card 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Eagles 31–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 71% favorites.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

January 16, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −7.5

Luck index +11 Buccaneers about even · −11 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 1, Buccaneers win 9.

  1. 1 PHI 35 TB 27
  2. 2 PHI 34 TB 36
  3. 3 PHI 24 TB 30
  4. 4 PHI 45 TB 54
  5. 5 PHI 21 TB 33
  6. 6 PHI 30 TB 45
  7. 7 PHI 20 TB 37
  8. 8 PHI 17 TB 39
  9. 9 PHI 10 TB 38
  10. 10 PHI 0 TB 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 11% of them, Buccaneers 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+1.0%
Eagles by 9–162.7%
Eagles by 1–86.9%
Level after regulation1.5%
Buccaneers by 1–816.0%
Buccaneers by 9–1621.2%
Buccaneers by 17+50.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Buccaneers by 16, without the luck Buccaneers by 18.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Eagles 4 for 45 yards, Buccaneers 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:28 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Derek Barnett), 15 yards +3% TB +0.8 pts
Q1 6:11 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.1 pts
Q2 3:55 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 15 yards +2% PHI +1.0 pts
Q2 2:23 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +1% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Quez Watkins), 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% TB +1.9 pts
Q3 14:19 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% TB +1.9 pts
Q3 1:51 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.5 pts
Q4 12:08 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Rob Gronkowski), 10 yards 0% PHI +0.9 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:56 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:40 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +4% TB PHI: Punt
3 Q1 7:09 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +4% PHI TB: Punt
4 Q2 7:12 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +3% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 2:36 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% PHI TB: Punt
6 Q2 1:43 The Eagles converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% PHI PHI: Turnover
7 Q2 0:31 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +3% PHI TB: Punt
8 Q3 13:08 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% PHI PHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cyril Grayson (TB WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Leonard Fournette (TB RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Sweat (PHI DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jack Driscoll (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nate Herbig (PHI G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 0% · Buccaneers 100%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 16
Luck in points
2.1 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 18.1
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 11% · Buccaneers 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2021 games · Eagles · Buccaneers

More from Wild Card 2021