Bengals lucky 27 
Chiefs unlucky 24 Stolen · Bengals win 20% of replays 2021 NFL season · January 30, 2022
Conference championships 2021: who deserved to win
1 of 2 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bengals beat the Chiefs 27–24 in a game they win 20% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.
Bengals lucky 27 Chiefs unlucky 24 Stolen · Bengals win 20% of replays 
49ers 17 
Rams 20 Coin flip · Rams win 56% of replays Conference championships 2021 upsets
Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.
| Winner | Game | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 27–24 @ Chiefs | 30% | 20% | Lucky |
Luck ranking, conference championships
Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bengals | W 27–24 @ Chiefs | 20% | +80 |
| 2 | Rams | W 20–17 vs 49ers | 56% | +44 |
| 3 | 49ers | L 17–20 @ Rams | 44% | −44 |
| 4 | Chiefs | L 24–27 vs Bengals | 80% | −80 |