NFC Championship 2021 · January 30, 2022
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
49ers at Rams, NFC Championship 2021: who deserved to win?
The Rams beat the 49ers 20–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Rams win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Rams.
Before kickoff the Rams were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:19 left): the 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 13, worth 18 points of win probability to the Rams.
Final
 San Francisco 49ers | 17 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +44 Rams lucky · −44 49ers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. 49ers win 4, Rams win 6.
- 1 SF 27 LA 10
- 2 SF 31 LA 21
- 3 SF 13 LA 7
- 4 SF 34 LA 31
- 5 SF 10 LA 12
- 6 SF 17 LA 21
- 7 SF 9 LA 17
- 8 SF 24 LA 34
- 9 SF 13 LA 27
- 10 SF 13 LA 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
49ers win 44% of them, Rams 56%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| 49ers by 17+ | 7.0% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 12.5% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 23.7% |
| Level after regulation | 6.5% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 24.4% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 15.6% |
| Rams by 17+ | 10.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Gay, 54 yds missed · 69% expected
- R. Gould, 38 yds made · 90% expected
- M. Gay, 40 yds made · 89% expected
- M. Gay, 30 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: 49ers 6 for 54 yards, Rams 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:03 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Ambry Thomas), 9 yards | +3% LA +1.2 pts |
| Q2 7:23 | False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LA +0.7 pts |
| Q3 14:09 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Rams (Greg Gaines), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SF +2.4 pts |
| Q3 12:35 | Illegal Contact on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 5 yards | +1% SF +0.4 pts |
| Q3 1:59 | Taunting on the 49ers, 15 yards | +4% LA +1.8 pts |
| Q4 10:01 | Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 9:47 | Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Jimmie Ward), 15 yards | +9% LA +2.0 pts |
| Q4 6:45 | Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LA +0.6 pts |
49ers penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Rams’ chance of winning
As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:04 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +17% SF | LA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 8:50 | The Rams converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +11% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 8:03 | The Rams were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +9% SF | LA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 9:47 | Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Jimmie Ward), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3356 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 | +9% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 8:50 | The Rams converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +14% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 7:34 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +8% SF | LA: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 3:26 | The Rams converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +13% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:19 | The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +18% LA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Taylor Rapp (LA FS), out · 0.5 pts
- Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Marcell Harris (SF LB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
49ers 55% · Rams 45%
- Final margin
- Rams by 3
- Luck in points
- 2.7 for the Rams
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rams by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- 49ers 44% · Rams 56% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Conference championships 2021 games · 
49ers · 
Rams
More from Conference championships 2021
- Bengals at Chiefs CIN 27–24 · replay 20% for the winner