luckadjusted

Week 5 2021 · October 11, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Ravens, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Colts 31–25 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Colts had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Colts.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:04 left): R. Blankenship missed 47-yard field goal, worth 20 points of win probability to the Ravens. The biggest single swing (Q1, 13:11 left): the Colts converted 3rd & 15.

Final (OT)

Indianapolis Colts 25
Baltimore Ravens 31

October 11, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7.5

Luck index +31 Ravens lucky · −31 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 3, Ravens win 7.

  1. 1 IND 31 BAL 13
  2. 2 IND 42 BAL 34
  3. 3 IND 41 BAL 38
  4. 4 IND 33 BAL 35
  5. 5 IND 28 BAL 34
  6. 6 IND 19 BAL 28
  7. 7 IND 23 BAL 34
  8. 8 IND 16 BAL 31
  9. 9 IND 24 BAL 44
  10. 10 IND 24 BAL 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 31% of them, Ravens 69%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+4.5%
Colts by 9–168.1%
Colts by 1–816.2%
Level after regulation3.1%
Ravens by 1–823.8%
Ravens by 9–1621.5%
Ravens by 17+22.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 6, without the luck Ravens by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 37 yds blocked · 90% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 47 yds missed · 74% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 5 for 45 yards, Ravens 8 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:22 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.9 pts
Q1 4:58 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards +2% BAL +0.8 pts
Q2 4:36 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +3% IND +0.9 pts
Q2 1:36 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.1 pts
Q2 1:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Anthony Averett), 9 yards +6% IND +0.9 pts
Q2 0:03 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.7 pts
Q3 13:59 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 9 yards +1% IND +0.8 pts
Q3 8:48 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Shaquille Leonard), 15 yards +5% BAL +1.8 pts
Q3 7:32 False Start on the Ravens, 6 yards · pre-snap +4% IND +0.7 pts
Q3 6:49 Illegal Forward Pass on the Colts (Shaquille Leonard), 5 yards +1% BAL +0.5 pts
Q4 8:06 Horse Collar Tackle on the Ravens (Justin Houston), 15 yards, wiping out the play +3% IND +1.8 pts
Q4 0:26 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +6% BAL +0.7 pts
Q4 0:18 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Tavon Young), 15 yards +21% IND +1.5 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:11 The Colts converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +23% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:43 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% IND BAL: Field goal
3 Q2 0:10 The Colts converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% IND IND: Field goal
4 Q3 7:16 The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% BAL BAL: Turnover
5 Q3 6:49 The Ravens fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Illegal Forward Pass on the Colts (Shaquille Leonard), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2073 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +7% IND BAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:39 The Ravens’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +19% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:18 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Tavon Young), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 180 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +21% IND IND: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:04 The game turned hereR. Blankenship missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 3 of 7 from 45+ before +20% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Derek Wolfe (BAL DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (BAL S), out · 0.4 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (BAL RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Tyre Phillips (BAL G/T), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • T.Y. Hilton (IND WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Quenton Nelson (IND G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kwity Paye (IND DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quenton Nelson (IND G/C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Braden Smith (IND T/G), out · 0.4 pts
  • T.J. Carrie (IND CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rock Ya-Sin (IND CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 28% · Ravens 72%

Final margin
Ravens by 6
Luck in points
3.6 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Colts 31% · Ravens 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Colts · Ravens

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