luckadjusted

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Colts, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Jets 36–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:35 left): Return touchdown by the Colts, worth 34 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

New York Jets 7
Indianapolis Colts 36

September 27, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −12.5

Luck index +11 Colts about even · −11 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 1, Colts win 9.

  1. 1 NYJ 26 IND 21
  2. 2 NYJ 10 IND 13
  3. 3 NYJ 19 IND 23
  4. 4 NYJ 20 IND 27
  5. 5 NYJ 10 IND 21
  6. 6 NYJ 6 IND 20
  7. 7 NYJ 14 IND 30
  8. 8 NYJ 23 IND 44
  9. 9 NYJ 13 IND 38
  10. 10 NYJ 2 IND 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 11% of them, Colts 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 29.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.7%
Jets by 9–162.0%
Jets by 1–87.0%
Level after regulation1.6%
Colts by 1–820.1%
Colts by 9–1621.8%
Colts by 17+46.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 29, without the luck Colts by 27.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Blankenship, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 41 yds missed · 88% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 41 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 7 for 57 yards, Colts 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts, 10 yards +5% NYJ +2.3 pts
Q2 14:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Pierre Desir), 3 yards +3% IND +1.0 pts
Q2 5:24 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +1% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q2 1:16 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +3% IND +0.6 pts
Q3 0:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 15 yards +1% IND +1.3 pts
Q4 11:48 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards 0% IND +1.2 pts
Q4 11:21 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% IND +1.4 pts
Q4 9:47 Offensive Holding on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 10 yards 0% NYJ +1.0 pts
Q4 7:46 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% NYJ +1.8 pts
Q4 6:18 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Nate Hairston), 4 yards 0% IND +0.3 pts
Q4 4:44 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.6 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% NYJ NYJ: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 12:35 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedReturn touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams +34% IND NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:53 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:35 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:09 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% IND IND: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:03 R. Blankenship missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +6% NYJ IND: Punt
7 Q3 5:24 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +4% IND IND: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:08 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedReturn touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams +6% IND NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rock Ya-Sin (IND CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Malik Hooker (IND FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • George Fant (NYJ T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Arthur Maulet (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jamison Crowder (NYJ WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Le'Veon Bell (NYJ RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Vyncint Smith (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Breshad Perriman (NYJ WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nate Hairston (NYJ CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Colts 100%

Final margin
Colts by 29
Luck in points
1.1 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 27.9
Replay with same day's form
Jets 11% · Colts 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Jets · Colts

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