luckadjusted

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Broncos, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Broncos 28–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:47 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 8, worth 12 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28
Denver Broncos 10

September 27, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Buccaneers −6

Luck index +14 Buccaneers about even · −14 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 9, Broncos win 1.

  1. 1 TB 39 DEN 7
  2. 2 TB 37 DEN 13
  3. 3 TB 30 DEN 10
  4. 4 TB 33 DEN 17
  5. 5 TB 27 DEN 14
  6. 6 TB 19 DEN 9
  7. 7 TB 13 DEN 6
  8. 8 TB 24 DEN 19
  9. 9 TB 12 DEN 10
  10. 10 TB 23 DEN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 86% of them, Broncos 14%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+41.4%
Buccaneers by 9–1624.1%
Buccaneers by 1–820.4%
Level after regulation1.6%
Broncos by 1–88.7%
Broncos by 9–162.8%
Broncos by 17+1.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 18, without the luck Buccaneers by 17.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 43 yds made · 81% expected
  • B. McManus, 56 yds made · 61% expected
  • R. Succop, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 9 for 71 yards, Broncos 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:24 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% TB +2.1 pts
Q1 7:01 False Start on the Buccaneers (O.J. Howard), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.7 pts
Q2 2:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 11 yards 0% DEN +0.3 pts
Q3 12:13 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 5 yards 0% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 11:44 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +2% DEN +0.9 pts
Q3 11:16 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% DEN +2.3 pts
Q3 7:49 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +1% DEN +1.3 pts
Q3 4:41 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos (Tim Patrick), 10 yards 0% TB +1.0 pts
Q4 11:38 Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers, 10 yards 0% DEN +1.0 pts
Q4 10:06 False Start on the Buccaneers (Kevin Minter), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.5 pts
Q4 9:16 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +1.1 pts
Q4 9:02 False Start on the Broncos (Noah Fant), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.8 pts
Q4 6:10 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.3 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:16 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% DEN DEN: Punt
2 Q1 10:51 Blocked punt by the BuccaneersSpecial teams +12% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q1 10:04 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:53 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +4% TB TB: Field goal
5 Q1 1:44 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% TB TB: Field goal
6 Q2 11:38 B. McManus made 56-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 10 of 15 from 45+ before +8% DEN DEN: Punt
7 Q2 10:47 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q3 5:16 The Broncos converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +4% DEN DEN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Drew Lock (DEN QB), out, replaced by j.driskel · 1.1 pts
  • Courtland Sutton (DEN WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Von Miller (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Phillip Lindsay (DEN RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Justin Watson (TB WR), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 100% · Broncos 0%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 18
Luck in points
0.6 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 17.4
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 86% · Broncos 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Buccaneers · Broncos

More from Week 3 2020