luckadjusted

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Saints at Steelers, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Saints 20–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:22 left): the Saints were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 16 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

New Orleans Saints 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 20

November 13, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −1

Luck index +17 Steelers about even · −17 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 2, Steelers win 8.

  1. 1 NO 30 PIT 20
  2. 2 NO 20 PIT 17
  3. 3 NO 13 PIT 16
  4. 4 NO 14 PIT 19
  5. 5 NO 6 PIT 13
  6. 6 NO 10 PIT 20
  7. 7 NO 0 PIT 13
  8. 8 NO 0 PIT 16
  9. 9 NO 3 PIT 22
  10. 10 NO 3 PIT 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 17% of them, Steelers 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+1.1%
Saints by 9–164.5%
Saints by 1–810.7%
Level after regulation1.1%
Steelers by 1–825.5%
Steelers by 9–1623.3%
Steelers by 17+33.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.3 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 10, without the luck Steelers by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • W. Lutz, 44 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Wright, 39 yds missed · 84% expected
  • M. Wright, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Wright, 48 yds missed · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 10 for 74 yards, Steelers 3 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:04 False Start on the Saints (Juwan Johnson), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.7 pts
Q1 6:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints, 11 yards +3% PIT +1.2 pts
Q1 5:06 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Tre'Quan Smith), 10 yards +2% PIT +0.7 pts
Q1 1:41 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Kentavius Street), 15 yards +7% PIT +2.5 pts
Q2 6:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 5 yards +2% PIT +0.8 pts
Q2 2:00 Fair Catch Interference on the Steelers, 15 yards +4% NO +1.4 pts
Q2 0:29 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Damontae Kazee), 15 yards +2% NO +0.9 pts
Q3 14:57 Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Jarvis Landry), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% PIT +1.5 pts
Q3 13:46 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Marcus Allen), 10 yards +4% NO +0.8 pts
Q3 10:26 Defensive Holding on the Saints, 5 yards +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q3 6:47 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.7 pts
Q3 2:10 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints, 5 yards +3% PIT +0.7 pts
Q4 8:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 4 yards +4% PIT +2.0 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:45 The Steelers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:51 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q3 14:57 Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Jarvis Landry), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2499 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +7% PIT PIT: Missed field goal
4 Q3 8:09 The Saints converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% NO NO: Punt
5 Q4 14:16 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +10% NO PIT: Field goal
6 Q4 13:47 M. Wright made 33-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q4 12:22 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% PIT NO: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 4:30 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT SS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (PIT CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Chris Boswell (PIT K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Bradley Roby (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Erik McCoy (NO C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Marquez Callaway (NO WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Pete Werner (NO LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (NO DE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 26% · Steelers 74%

Final margin
Steelers by 10
Luck in points
9.3 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Saints 17% · Steelers 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Saints · Steelers

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