luckadjusted

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Chargers at 49ers, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Chargers 22–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 8 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:01 left): R. Gould made 20-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 16
San Francisco 49ers 22

November 13, 2022 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −8.5

Luck index +16 49ers about even · −16 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 2, 49ers win 8.

  1. 1 LAC 27 SF 16
  2. 2 LAC 16 SF 13
  3. 3 LAC 17 SF 19
  4. 4 LAC 20 SF 24
  5. 5 LAC 16 SF 23
  6. 6 LAC 6 SF 17
  7. 7 LAC 33 SF 47
  8. 8 LAC 9 SF 26
  9. 9 LAC 6 SF 27
  10. 10 LAC 3 SF 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 16% of them, 49ers 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+1.5%
Chargers by 9–164.6%
Chargers by 1–89.9%
Level after regulation2.2%
49ers by 1–826.9%
49ers by 9–1621.9%
49ers by 17+33.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Chargers: the final margin was 49ers by 6, without the luck 49ers by 8.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Gould, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Dicker, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • C. Dicker, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Dicker, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • R. Gould, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Gould, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 1 for 5 yards, 49ers 5 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 8:02 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SF +1.0 pts
Q2 5:55 Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.6 pts
Q2 1:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 17 yards +5% LAC +1.2 pts
Q2 0:38 Disqualification on the 49ers (Dre Greenlaw), 15 yards +4% LAC +1.4 pts
Q3 8:52 Defensive Offside on the 49ers (Charles Omenihu), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.4 pts
Q4 13:37 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% LAC +1.5 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:33 The 49ers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% SF SF: Touchdown
2 Q3 9:00 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedB. Aiyuk dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 48 catchable balls before this +9% LAC SF: Field goal
3 Q4 13:37 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% LAC LAC: Punt
4 Q4 12:36 The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% SF SF: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:25 The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +13% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:22 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% SF LAC: Turnover
7 Q4 1:01 R. Gould made 20-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +13% LAC SF: End of game
8 Q4 0:53 The Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% SF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Emmanuel Moseley (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Arik Armstead (SF DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Samson Ebukam (SF DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Javon Kinlaw (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Trey Pipkins (LAC T), out · 0.8 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dustin Hopkins (LAC K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Johnson (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 1% · 49ers 99%

Final margin
49ers by 6
Luck in points
2.7 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 16% · 49ers 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Chargers · 49ers

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