luckadjusted

Week 10 2022 · November 14, 2022

Commanders at Eagles, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Eagles 32–21, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:33 left): the Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 24 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Washington Commanders 32
Philadelphia Eagles 21

November 14, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −11

Luck index +54 Commanders lucky · −54 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 5, Eagles win 5.

  1. 1 WAS 34 PHI 13
  2. 2 WAS 31 PHI 17
  3. 3 WAS 30 PHI 21
  4. 4 WAS 13 PHI 7
  5. 5 WAS 16 PHI 13
  6. 6 WAS 27 PHI 29
  7. 7 WAS 23 PHI 27
  8. 8 WAS 20 PHI 27
  9. 9 WAS 24 PHI 36
  10. 10 WAS 6 PHI 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 46% of them, Eagles 54%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+8.0%
Commanders by 9–1614.7%
Commanders by 1–821.9%
Level after regulation6.7%
Eagles by 1–823.5%
Eagles by 9–1615.2%
Eagles by 17+9.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.8 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 11, without the luck Eagles by 2.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. Slye, 58 yds made · 58% expected
  • J. Slye, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Slye, 55 yds made · 63% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 5 for 58 yards, Eagles 7 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 8 yards +1% PHI +0.7 pts
Q1 13:32 Roughing the Kicker on the Eagles, 15 yards, wiping out the play +6% WAS +2.7 pts
Q1 2:03 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 10 yards +4% WAS +1.7 pts
Q1 1:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 30 yards +5% PHI +2.6 pts
Q2 13:41 Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 5 yards 0% WAS +0.3 pts
Q2 10:17 Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 11:39 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q4 14:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 15 yards +8% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 6:24 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +7% WAS +1.3 pts
Q4 4:17 Offensive Pass Interference on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +18% PHI +3.3 pts
Q4 2:18 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Eagles, 5 yards +1% WAS 0.0 pts
Q4 1:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Brandon Graham), 15 yards +7% WAS +1.8 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:20 The Commanders fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% PHI WAS: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:49 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:19 The Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:32 The Commanders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 Q4 14:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 3142 snaps before, position avg 1 per 473 +8% WAS WAS: Turnover
6 Q4 12:33 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedThe Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +24% PHI WAS: Field goal
7 Q4 9:14 The Eagles fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% WAS PHI: Turnover
8 Q4 4:17 Offensive Pass Interference on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +18% PHI PHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Turner (WAS TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 34% · Eagles 66%

Final margin
Commanders by 11
Luck in points
13.8 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 2.8
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 46% · Eagles 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Commanders · Eagles

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