luckadjusted

Week 10 2022 · November 10, 2022

Falcons at Panthers, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Falcons 25–15, but the Falcons played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:21 left): Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 13 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 15
Carolina Panthers 25

November 10, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −2.5

Luck index +67 Panthers very lucky · −67 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 7, Panthers win 3.

  1. 1 ATL 30 CAR 3
  2. 2 ATL 29 CAR 9
  3. 3 ATL 23 CAR 7
  4. 4 ATL 35 CAR 23
  5. 5 ATL 34 CAR 27
  6. 6 ATL 35 CAR 30
  7. 7 ATL 27 CAR 24
  8. 8 ATL 14 CAR 17
  9. 9 ATL 19 CAR 27
  10. 10 ATL 10 CAR 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 66% of them, Panthers 34%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+24.5%
Falcons by 9–1620.4%
Falcons by 1–820.7%
Level after regulation3.6%
Panthers by 1–815.6%
Panthers by 9–1610.0%
Panthers by 17+5.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Panthers by 10, without the luck Panthers by 11.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 46 yds made · 77% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • Y. Koo, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 40 yds made · 85% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 37 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 4 for 37 yards, Panthers 10 for 89 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +2% CAR +0.9 pts
Q1 3:14 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 9 yards, wiping out the play +7% CAR +2.6 pts
Q2 9:49 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.6 pts
Q2 1:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Xavier Woods), 15 yards +2% ATL +1.4 pts
Q3 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Shi Smith), 12 yards +1% ATL +1.1 pts
Q3 13:35 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 5 yards +2% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 12:21 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 13 yards, wiping out the play +11% CAR +2.8 pts
Q3 10:46 False Start on the Panthers, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.7 pts
Q3 8:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 11 yards +5% ATL +1.2 pts
Q3 6:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Xavier Woods), 15 yards +2% ATL +1.1 pts
Q3 4:13 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +4% ATL +1.7 pts
Q4 14:47 Defensive Holding on the Falcons, 5 yards +1% CAR +0.9 pts
Q4 10:59 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 1:02 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% ATL +1.8 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:04 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% CAR ATL: Punt
2 Q1 7:12 The Panthers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% CAR CAR: Field goal
3 Q1 5:53 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% ATL ATL: Punt
4 Q1 3:14 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% CAR CAR: Punt
5 Q3 14:23 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedL. Shenault dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 10 catchable balls before this +5% ATL CAR: Punt
6 Q3 12:21 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 13 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% CAR CAR: Punt
7 Q3 11:31 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% CAR ATL: Punt
8 Q3 9:57 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% ATL CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jeremy Chinn (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR SS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Casey Hayward (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ATL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 5% · Panthers 95%

Final margin
Panthers by 10
Luck in points
1.8 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 11.8
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 66% · Panthers 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Falcons · Panthers

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