luckadjusted

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Broncos at Titans, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Broncos 17–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 21 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Titans were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:39 left): the Titans were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 24 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 10
Tennessee Titans 17

November 13, 2022 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −2.5

Luck index +13 Titans about even · −13 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 1, Titans win 9.

  1. 1 DEN 20 TEN 12
  2. 2 DEN 3 TEN 5
  3. 3 DEN 12 TEN 17
  4. 4 DEN 20 TEN 27
  5. 5 DEN 13 TEN 23
  6. 6 DEN 13 TEN 26
  7. 7 DEN 6 TEN 22
  8. 8 DEN 10 TEN 30
  9. 9 DEN 3 TEN 27
  10. 10 DEN 12 TEN 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 13% of them, Titans 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+0.9%
Broncos by 9–163.0%
Broncos by 1–87.6%
Level after regulation1.8%
Titans by 1–817.9%
Titans by 9–1622.5%
Titans by 17+46.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.1 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Titans by 7, without the luck Titans by 18.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 39 yds made · 86% expected
  • R. Bullock, 35 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 8 for 50 yards, Titans 9 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:12 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Jacob Martin), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% TEN +2.2 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Broncos (Eric Tomlinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q2 11:21 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q2 5:56 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Larrell Murchison), 5 yards +1% DEN +1.0 pts
Q2 4:24 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +3% TEN +1.4 pts
Q2 3:51 Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.2 pts
Q2 3:16 Roughing the Passer on the Titans, 15 yards +4% DEN +1.8 pts
Q2 0:29 Defensive Holding on the Broncos, 5 yards +1% TEN +0.9 pts
Q3 13:18 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +8% DEN +1.5 pts
Q3 11:46 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.9 pts
Q3 11:00 Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.6 pts
Q3 8:41 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 4:29 Defensive Holding on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +9% DEN +2.5 pts
Q4 15:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos (Tyrie Cleveland), 10 yards +4% TEN +1.0 pts
Q4 9:50 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.7 pts
Q4 7:30 False Start on the Broncos (Latavius Murray), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.8 pts
Q4 0:30 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Rashad Weaver), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.5 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:17 The Broncos converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% DEN DEN: Punt
2 Q2 8:30 The Broncos converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +21% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:16 The Titans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +9% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q3 4:29 Defensive Holding on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% DEN DEN: Punt
5 Q3 0:02 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedR. Woods dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 28 catchable balls before this +15% DEN TEN: Punt
6 Q4 14:49 The Broncos fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% DEN DEN: Punt
7 Q4 7:39 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedThe Titans fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +24% DEN TEN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:20 The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jeffery Simmons (TEN DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zach Cunningham (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Garett Bolles (DEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Justin Simmons (DEN FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ronald Darby (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Cameron Fleming (DEN T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Randy Gregory (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Caden Sterns (DEN FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Javonte Williams (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Baron Browning (DEN LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Jacob Bobenmoyer (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 0% · Titans 100%

Final margin
Titans by 7
Luck in points
11.1 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 18.1
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 13% · Titans 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Broncos · Titans

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