luckadjusted

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Bengals at Saints, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Saints 30–26 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:48 left): A. Kamara dropped a catchable pass, worth 38 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 30
New Orleans Saints 26

October 16, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Bengals −3

Luck index +21 Bengals about even · −21 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 8, Saints win 2.

  1. 1 CIN 44 NO 14
  2. 2 CIN 36 NO 14
  3. 3 CIN 24 NO 6
  4. 4 CIN 47 NO 33
  5. 5 CIN 23 NO 13
  6. 6 CIN 38 NO 31
  7. 7 CIN 15 NO 10
  8. 8 CIN 26 NO 24
  9. 9 CIN 20 NO 23
  10. 10 CIN 23 NO 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 79% of them, Saints 21%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+28.9%
Bengals by 9–1623.1%
Bengals by 1–825.7%
Level after regulation2.2%
Saints by 1–812.2%
Saints by 9–165.6%
Saints by 17+2.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.0 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 4, without the luck Saints by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • W. Lutz, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • W. Lutz, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • W. Lutz, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • E. McPherson, 52 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 3 for 30 yards, Saints 4 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:09 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Demario Davis), 14 yards +4% CIN +1.7 pts
Q3 12:17 False Start on the Saints (Juwan Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.6 pts
Q3 11:49 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.7 pts
Q3 11:31 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% CIN +2.6 pts
Q3 11:04 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 15 yards +4% NO +1.8 pts
Q4 8:34 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +4% NO +0.8 pts
Q4 1:57 Offside on Free Kick on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.5 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +8% NO CIN: Punt
2 Q1 0:51 The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q3 11:31 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q4 1:57 The Bengals’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOffside on Free Kick on the Bengals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% NO CIN: End of game
5 Q4 0:48 A. Kamara dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 20 catchable balls before this +38% CIN NO: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 0:44 M. Callaway dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 11 catchable balls before this +22% CIN NO: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:39 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +11% CIN NO: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:34 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedThe Saints got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% CIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jameis Winston (NO QB), out, replaced by a.dalton · 1.2 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jarvis Landry (NO WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chris Olave (NO WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Calvin Throckmorton (NO T), out · 0.6 pts
  • P.J. Williams (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaiah Prince (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 69% · Saints 31%

Final margin
Bengals by 4
Luck in points
6.0 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 79% · Saints 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Bengals · Saints

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