luckadjusted

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Jaguars at Colts, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Jaguars 34–27, but the Jaguars played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Colts.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:23 left): the Colts converted 3rd & 13, worth 36 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 27
Indianapolis Colts 34

October 16, 2022 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1

Luck index +75 Colts very lucky · −75 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 7, Colts win 3.

  1. 1 JAX 43 IND 16
  2. 2 JAX 32 IND 12
  3. 3 JAX 21 IND 6
  4. 4 JAX 31 IND 20
  5. 5 JAX 29 IND 20
  6. 6 JAX 29 IND 23
  7. 7 JAX 21 IND 19
  8. 8 JAX 7 IND 10
  9. 9 JAX 27 IND 34
  10. 10 JAX 17 IND 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 75% of them, Colts 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+24.3%
Jaguars by 9–1622.1%
Jaguars by 1–825.3%
Level after regulation4.1%
Colts by 1–815.0%
Colts by 9–166.7%
Colts by 17+2.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.5 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 7, without the luck Jaguars by 2.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 42 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 4 for 44 yards, Colts 7 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:28 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 13:16 Defensive Holding on the Colts, 5 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 8:52 Intentional Grounding on the Colts (Matt Ryan), 10 yards +2% JAX +0.7 pts
Q2 3:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Shaquill Griffin), 9 yards +6% IND +2.4 pts
Q2 3:46 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +3% JAX +1.3 pts
Q3 12:58 Defensive Holding on the Colts, 5 yards +2% JAX +0.8 pts
Q3 11:55 False Start on the Jaguars (Evan Engram), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.9 pts
Q3 8:00 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars, 15 yards +6% IND +2.6 pts
Q4 13:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Shaquill Griffin), 15 yards +4% IND +1.0 pts
Q4 11:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Stephon Gilmore), 7 yards +7% JAX +1.9 pts
Q4 4:39 Defensive Holding on the Colts (DeForest Buckner), 5 yards +8% JAX +1.2 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Colts penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:36 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +14% JAX JAX: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:47 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% IND IND: Field goal
3 Q3 1:14 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +14% IND JAX: Touchdown
4 Q3 0:11 The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:57 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% JAX JAX: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:38 The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% IND IND: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:49 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +19% IND IND: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:23 The Colts converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +36% IND IND: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquille Leonard (IND LB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kwity Paye (IND DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rigoberto Sanchez (IND P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Marvin Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 68% · Colts 32%

Final margin
Colts by 7
Luck in points
9.5 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 75% · Colts 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Jaguars · Colts

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