luckadjusted

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

49ers at Falcons, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the 49ers 28–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:36 left): the 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 17 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 14
Atlanta Falcons 28

October 16, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −3.5

Luck index +27 Falcons lucky · −27 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 3, Falcons win 7.

  1. 1 SF 23 ATL 10
  2. 2 SF 20 ATL 13
  3. 3 SF 23 ATL 21
  4. 4 SF 10 ATL 12
  5. 5 SF 26 ATL 31
  6. 6 SF 20 ATL 27
  7. 7 SF 21 ATL 31
  8. 8 SF 6 ATL 19
  9. 9 SF 3 ATL 20
  10. 10 SF 14 ATL 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 27% of them, Falcons 73%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+2.4%
49ers by 9–166.5%
49ers by 1–815.1%
Level after regulation4.5%
Falcons by 1–827.4%
Falcons by 9–1623.2%
Falcons by 17+20.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.8 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 14, without the luck Falcons by 2.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: 49ers 5 for 30 yards, Falcons 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:03 False Start on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.6 pts
Q1 4:42 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% SF +1.5 pts
Q2 7:07 Defensive Holding on the 49ers (Fred Warner), 5 yards +1% ATL +0.4 pts
Q2 2:52 Neutral Zone Infraction on the 49ers (Hassan Ridgeway), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.6 pts
Q2 0:16 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Lorenzo Carter), 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% SF +2.1 pts
Q2 0:09 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Falcons (Rashaan Evans), 15 yards +5% SF +1.0 pts
Q3 0:02 Encroachment on the Falcons (Grady Jarrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +1.0 pts
Q4 9:42 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the 49ers, 5 yards +1% ATL +1.3 pts
Q4 7:27 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% ATL +4.7 pts
Q4 4:37 False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.7 pts

49ers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:41 The Falcons converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:36 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedThe 49ers fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% ATL SF: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:08 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% SF ATL: Punt
4 Q2 3:34 The Falcons converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:16 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Lorenzo Carter), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2066 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +8% SF SF: Turnover
6 Q3 14:49 R. McCloud dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 4 catchable balls before this +4% ATL SF: Punt
7 Q3 8:44 The Falcons converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +3% ATL ATL: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:27 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% ATL ATL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jalen Mayfield (ATL G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mykal Walker (ATL LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trent Williams (SF T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Nick Bosa (SF DE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Emmanuel Moseley (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Arik Armstead (SF DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (SF FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Javon Kinlaw (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Mitchell (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 23% · Falcons 77%

Final margin
Falcons by 14
Luck in points
11.8 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
49ers 27% · Falcons 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · 49ers · Falcons

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