luckadjusted

Week 6 2022 · October 17, 2022

Broncos at Chargers, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Broncos 19–16, but the Broncos played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (QOT, 4:58 left): the Broncos fumbled and the Chargers recovered, worth 29 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final (OT)

Denver Broncos 16
Los Angeles Chargers 19

October 17, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3.5

Luck index +68 Chargers very lucky · −68 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 7, Chargers win 3.

  1. 1 DEN 36 LAC 10
  2. 2 DEN 23 LAC 6
  3. 3 DEN 16 LAC 3
  4. 4 DEN 34 LAC 24
  5. 5 DEN 30 LAC 23
  6. 6 DEN 24 LAC 20
  7. 7 DEN 26 LAC 24
  8. 8 DEN 10 LAC 13
  9. 9 DEN 10 LAC 19
  10. 10 DEN 3 LAC 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 68% of them, Chargers 32%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+21.1%
Broncos by 9–1621.3%
Broncos by 1–825.3%
Level after regulation4.2%
Chargers by 1–814.8%
Chargers by 9–168.8%
Chargers by 17+4.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 3, without the luck Chargers by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 51 yds made · 74% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. McManus, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. McManus, 48 yds made · 80% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 39 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 10 for 151 yards, Chargers 9 for 89 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 30 yards +4% LAC +1.7 pts
Q1 12:45 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.6 pts
Q1 12:31 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +4% LAC +1.4 pts
Q1 10:49 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.7 pts
Q1 10:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 21 yards +8% DEN +3.2 pts
Q1 7:14 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +4% DEN +1.6 pts
Q2 4:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 36 yards +14% LAC +3.9 pts
Q2 4:13 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% DEN +2.0 pts
Q2 2:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 11 yards +4% LAC +1.3 pts
Q2 0:22 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers, 9 yards +1% DEN +0.4 pts
Q3 12:12 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Tre' McKitty), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% DEN +1.7 pts
Q3 10:50 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Bradley Chubb), 15 yards +7% LAC +0.5 pts
Q3 4:31 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Baron Browning), 4 yards · pre-snap +3% LAC +0.9 pts
Q4 8:21 Face Mask on the Broncos (Dre'Mont Jones), 15 yards +6% LAC +1.4 pts
Q4 6:42 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 15 yards +14% LAC +1.8 pts
Q4 5:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 10 yards +10% LAC +1.7 pts
Q4 4:59 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +9% DEN +1.6 pts
QOT 8:22 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 9 yards +14% DEN +1.4 pts
QOT 5:28 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% DEN +0.9 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 36 yardsJudgment calls +14% LAC LAC: Field goal
2 Q4 6:42 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 15 yardsJudgment calls +14% LAC LAC: Field goal
3 Q4 0:01 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +22% DEN LAC: Punt
4 QOT 8:39 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +17% LAC DEN: Punt
5 QOT 5:50 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +14% LAC DEN: Punt
6 QOT 5:36 The Chargers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% LAC LAC: Punt
7 QOT 4:58 The game turned hereThe Broncos fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +29% LAC –
8 QOT 3:23 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +16% LAC LAC: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Keenan Allen (LAC WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out · 0.7 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Garett Bolles (DEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Ronald Darby (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Josey Jewell (DEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Randy Gregory (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Caden Sterns (DEN FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Javonte Williams (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jacob Bobenmoyer (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 41% · Chargers 59%

Final margin
Chargers by 3
Luck in points
0.6 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 68% · Chargers 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Broncos · Chargers

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