luckadjusted

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

Ravens at Jets, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Jets 24–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:55 left): G. Zuerlein missed 45-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 24
New York Jets 9

September 11, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −6.5

Luck index +31 Ravens lucky · −31 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 7, Jets win 3.

  1. 1 BAL 37 NYJ 12
  2. 2 BAL 19 NYJ 0
  3. 3 BAL 41 NYJ 26
  4. 4 BAL 27 NYJ 16
  5. 5 BAL 27 NYJ 20
  6. 6 BAL 26 NYJ 21
  7. 7 BAL 23 NYJ 20
  8. 8 BAL 20 NYJ 23
  9. 9 BAL 15 NYJ 24
  10. 10 BAL 10 NYJ 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 69% of them, Jets 31%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+23.8%
Ravens by 9–1620.0%
Ravens by 1–824.3%
Level after regulation3.7%
Jets by 1–814.8%
Jets by 9–169.2%
Jets by 17+4.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 15, without the luck Ravens by 9.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 24 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 45 yds missed · 79% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 45 yds made · 78% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 5 for 29 yards, Jets 6 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:01 Intentional Grounding on the Jets (Joe Flacco), 10 yards +2% BAL +0.7 pts
Q1 8:31 Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards +5% NYJ +1.3 pts
Q1 5:21 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q2 4:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Lamarcus Joyner), 32 yards +5% BAL +1.2 pts
Q3 6:30 Illegal Contact on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYJ +2.2 pts
Q3 2:06 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Jacob Martin), 9 yards 0% BAL +1.2 pts
Q4 13:17 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards 0% NYJ +2.0 pts
Q4 7:08 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards 0% BAL +1.2 pts
Q4 4:17 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (James Proche), 4 yards, wiping out the play 0% NYJ +2.0 pts
Q4 2:07 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Kyle Fuller), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% NYJ +1.5 pts
Q4 1:22 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Elijah Moore), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% BAL +3.8 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:01 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Jets (Joe Flacco), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 848 snaps before, position avg 1 per 697 +7% BAL NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 8:31 Illegal Contact on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 21 flags in 3004 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +5% NYJ NYJ: Punt
3 Q2 15:00 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedR. Bateman dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 1 catchable balls before this +5% NYJ BAL: Punt
4 Q2 10:55 G. Zuerlein missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 29 of 42 from 45+ before +10% BAL NYJ: Punt
5 Q2 4:55 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedT. Conklin dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 0 catchable balls before this +9% BAL NYJ: Punt
6 Q2 3:51 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q3 14:15 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% BAL BAL: Punt
8 Q4 1:22 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Elijah Moore), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 478 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +6% BAL BAL: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 86% · Jets 14%

Final margin
Ravens by 15
Luck in points
5.6 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 9.4
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 69% · Jets 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Ravens · Jets

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