Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022
Browns at Panthers, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?
The Browns beat the Panthers 26–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 10 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Panthers.
An off day for the Panthers: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Browns they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Panthers were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:13 left): C. York made 58-yard field goal, worth 30 points of win probability to the Browns.
Final
 Cleveland Browns | 26 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Browns about even · −3 Panthers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Browns win 10, Panthers win 0.
- 1 CLE 45 CAR 7
- 2 CLE 35 CAR 7
- 3 CLE 37 CAR 13
- 4 CLE 23 CAR 3
- 5 CLE 31 CAR 14
- 6 CLE 17 CAR 2
- 7 CLE 13 CAR 0
- 8 CLE 17 CAR 7
- 9 CLE 27 CAR 20
- 10 CLE 30 CAR 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Panthers
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Browns they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
51 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns offenseEPA per play gained | +0.01 | +0.12 | worse by 0.11 |
| Browns defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.07 | better by 0.00 |
| Panthers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.05 | better by 0.02 |
| Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.07 | better by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Browns win 97% of them, Panthers 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Browns by 17+ | 77.1% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 13.9% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 6.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 1.5% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. York, 26 yds made · 98% expected
- C. York, 34 yds made · 93% expected
- C. York, 36 yds made · 91% expected
- E. Pineiro, 34 yds made · 93% expected
- C. York, 58 yds made · 57% expected
Penalties: Browns 9 for 71 yards, Panthers 8 for 96 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:46 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Ian Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% CLE +2.6 pts |
| Q1 6:45 | Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% CAR +1.8 pts |
| Q1 5:04 | Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 5 yards | +5% CLE +1.6 pts |
| Q1 1:11 | Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Taven Bryan), 15 yards | +7% CAR +1.8 pts |
| Q1 1:11 | Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CLE +0.3 pts |
| Q1 0:35 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers, 7 yards | +2% CLE +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (C.J. Henderson), 34 yards, wiping out the play | +22% CLE +7.9 pts |
| Q2 1:17 | Low Block on the Panthers (Xavier Woods), 15 yards | +5% CLE +1.4 pts |
| Q2 1:17 | False Start on the Browns (Amari Cooper), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAR +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:21 | Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR +1.8 pts |
| Q3 8:51 | Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:59 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 6 yards | +3% CAR +1.0 pts |
| Q3 2:59 | Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CAR +0.4 pts |
| Q4 6:02 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Browns, 5 yards | +7% CAR +1.2 pts |
| Q4 2:42 | Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 5 yards | +5% CLE +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:36 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Browns (John Johnson), 15 yards | +13% CAR +2.4 pts |
| Q4 1:13 | Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 15 yards | +2% CLE +0.6 pts |
Browns penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:20 | The Browns were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +8% CAR | CLE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:46 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Ian Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1783 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 | +8% CLE | CLE: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 0:35 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +10% CLE | CAR: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 11:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (C.J. Henderson), 34 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 903 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +22% CLE | CLE: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 14:11 | The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +8% CLE | CLE: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 1:36 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Browns (John Johnson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 2655 snaps before, position avg 1 per 548 | +13% CAR | CAR: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:27 | The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% CAR | CAR: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 0:13 | The game turned hereC. York made 58-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +30% CLE | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Zane Gonzalez (CAR K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Browns 44% · Panthers 56%
- Final margin
- Browns by 2
- Luck in points
- 3.8 for the Browns
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 1.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Browns 97% · Panthers 3% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · 
Browns · 
Panthers
More from Week 1 2022
- Bills at Rams BUF 31–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Ravens at Jets BAL 24–9 · replay 69% for the winner
- Colts at Texans HOU 20–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- Jaguars at Commanders WAS 28–22 · replay 46% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 20–7 · replay 62% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons NO 27–26 · replay 63% for the winner
- Eagles at Lions PHI 38–35 · replay 88% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals PIT 23–20 · replay 13% for the winner
- 49ers at Bears CHI 19–10 · replay 42% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 23–7 · replay 43% for the winner
- Chiefs at Cardinals KC 44–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LAC 24–19 · replay 88% for the winner
- Giants at Titans NYG 21–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Cowboys TB 19–3 · replay 95% for the winner
- Broncos at Seahawks SEA 17–16 · replay 36% for the winner