luckadjusted

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

Jaguars at Commanders, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Commanders beat the Jaguars 28–22, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Commanders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:19 left): the Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 32 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 22
Washington Commanders 28

September 11, 2022 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −3

Luck index +54 Commanders lucky · −54 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 5, Commanders win 5.

  1. 1 JAX 30 WAS 6
  2. 2 JAX 34 WAS 19
  3. 3 JAX 33 WAS 23
  4. 4 JAX 31 WAS 26
  5. 5 JAX 26 WAS 24
  6. 6 JAX 26 WAS 28
  7. 7 JAX 14 WAS 20
  8. 8 JAX 26 WAS 37
  9. 9 JAX 17 WAS 33
  10. 10 JAX 16 WAS 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 54% of them, Commanders 46%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Commanders by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+13.2%
Jaguars by 9–1614.6%
Jaguars by 1–821.7%
Level after regulation5.1%
Commanders by 1–820.1%
Commanders by 9–1614.1%
Commanders by 17+11.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.2 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Commanders by 6, without the luck Commanders by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • R. Patterson, 37 yds missed · 91% expected
  • R. Patterson, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • R. Patterson, 45 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 13 for 90 yards, Commanders 6 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Contact on the Commanders (William Jackson III), 5 yards 0% JAX +0.3 pts
Q1 14:56 Illegal Shift on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.8 pts
Q1 5:52 Intentional Grounding on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 10 yards +3% WAS +1.2 pts
Q1 2:04 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars, 6 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 12:41 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Dawuane Smoot), 11 yards +4% WAS +1.3 pts
Q2 9:07 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% WAS +2.1 pts
Q2 8:30 Illegal Contact on the Commanders (Kendall Fuller), 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% JAX +2.2 pts
Q2 7:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Kendall Fuller), 21 yards +3% JAX +1.5 pts
Q2 0:37 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.4 pts
Q3 8:30 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 6 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.4 pts
Q3 3:35 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (Darrick Forrest), 15 yards +8% JAX +1.9 pts
Q3 3:05 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +8% WAS +1.4 pts
Q3 1:16 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +18% WAS +4.2 pts
Q4 13:00 Intentional Grounding on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 12 yards +4% WAS +1.5 pts
Q4 6:48 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders, 5 yards, wiping out the play +13% JAX +1.7 pts
Q4 6:20 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Foyesade Oluokun), 5 yards +3% WAS +0.6 pts
Q4 1:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Bobby McCain), 12 yards +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q4 1:30 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.3 pts
Q4 1:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Folorunso Fatukasi), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.2 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 13% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 1:16 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +18% WAS WAS: Turnover
2 Q4 14:24 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% JAX WAS: Turnover
3 Q4 7:27 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% WAS JAX: Punt
4 Q4 6:48 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% JAX JAX: Turnover
5 Q4 5:51 The Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:21 The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:52 The Commanders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +23% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:19 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +32% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kamren Curl (WAS FS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Keith Ismael (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyler Larsen (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 46% · Commanders 54%

Final margin
Commanders by 6
Luck in points
4.2 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 54% · Commanders 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Jaguars · Commanders

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