luckadjusted

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Dolphins at Lions, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Lions 31–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:59 left): the Lions were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 31
Detroit Lions 27

October 30, 2022 · Ford Field · Closing line: Dolphins −3.5

Luck index +34 Dolphins lucky · −34 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 7, Lions win 3.

  1. 1 MIA 24 DET 0
  2. 2 MIA 30 DET 13
  3. 3 MIA 27 DET 14
  4. 4 MIA 20 DET 10
  5. 5 MIA 21 DET 14
  6. 6 MIA 21 DET 17
  7. 7 MIA 24 DET 22
  8. 8 MIA 17 DET 20
  9. 9 MIA 20 DET 27
  10. 10 MIA 7 DET 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 66% of them, Lions 34%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+14.0%
Dolphins by 9–1621.3%
Dolphins by 1–830.5%
Level after regulation2.1%
Lions by 1–820.2%
Lions by 9–168.8%
Lions by 17+3.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 4, without the luck Dolphins by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Sanders, 45 yds made · 80% expected
  • M. Badgley, 26 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 7 for 55 yards, Lions 6 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Taunting on the Dolphins (Elandon Roberts), 15 yards +5% DET +1.8 pts
Q1 4:09 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +2% DET +1.7 pts
Q1 0:59 Illegal Contact on the Lions (Julian Okwara), 5 yards +4% MIA +1.5 pts
Q2 6:43 Illegal Motion on the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% DET +1.2 pts
Q2 0:18 Illegal Contact on the Dolphins (Justin Bethel), 5 yards 0% MIA +0.3 pts
Q3 9:40 Defensive Offside on the Lions (Amani Oruwariye), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA 0.0 pts
Q3 8:01 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.5 pts
Q3 7:42 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% MIA +1.3 pts
Q3 7:13 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.5 pts
Q4 14:27 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIA +0.8 pts
Q4 13:47 Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% DET +0.9 pts
Q4 12:21 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Dolphins (Jaelan Phillips), 10 yards +3% DET +0.8 pts
Q4 5:14 Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Christian Wilkins), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% DET +1.4 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:53 The Dolphins converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% MIA MIA: Turnover
2 Q1 6:57 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +10% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q2 11:35 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% MIA MIA: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:03 M. Badgley made 26-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +10% MIA DET: Punt
5 Q3 3:50 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q3 0:17 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +11% MIA MIA: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:47 A. St. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 42 catchable balls before this +9% MIA DET: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 2:59 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeShon Elliott (DET FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Hughes (DET CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tommy Kraemer (DET G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Charles Harris (DET LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Nik Needham (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Jones (MIA SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 66% · Lions 34%

Final margin
Dolphins by 4
Luck in points
1.9 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 2.1
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 66% · Lions 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Dolphins · Lions

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