luckadjusted

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Broncos vs Jaguars, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Jaguars 21–17, but the Jaguars played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 12:11 left): Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 21
Jacksonville Jaguars 17

October 30, 2022 · Wembley Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −1

Luck index +63 Broncos very lucky · −63 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 4, Jaguars win 6.

  1. 1 DEN 37 JAX 17
  2. 2 DEN 24 JAX 10
  3. 3 DEN 34 JAX 27
  4. 4 DEN 30 JAX 27
  5. 5 DEN 21 JAX 23
  6. 6 DEN 24 JAX 28
  7. 7 DEN 20 JAX 29
  8. 8 DEN 10 JAX 23
  9. 9 DEN 16 JAX 33
  10. 10 DEN 10 JAX 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 37% of them, Jaguars 63%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+6.1%
Broncos by 9–1611.2%
Broncos by 1–818.6%
Level after regulation1.9%
Jaguars by 1–824.4%
Jaguars by 9–1619.2%
Jaguars by 17+18.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Broncos by 4, without the luck Broncos by 7.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Broncos 12 for 80 yards, Jaguars 5 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:55 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Dre'Mont Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.3 pts
Q1 10:04 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +4% DEN +1.7 pts
Q1 7:12 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Eric Tomlinson), 10 yards +1% JAX +0.8 pts
Q1 6:13 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.5 pts
Q1 1:52 Low Block on the Broncos, 15 yards 0% JAX +1.1 pts
Q1 0:40 Taunting on the Broncos (Justin Simmons), 15 yards +3% JAX +2.9 pts
Q2 13:36 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Justin Simmons), 2 yards +2% JAX +1.3 pts
Q2 12:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 4 yards +2% JAX +1.3 pts
Q2 11:13 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.7 pts
Q2 2:44 Delay of Kickoff on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX 0.0 pts
Q2 2:36 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Bradley Chubb), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN 0.0 pts
Q2 1:20 Intentional Grounding on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 14 yards +3% DEN +1.3 pts
Q3 5:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars, 15 yards +7% DEN +1.4 pts
Q3 5:07 Illegal Contact on the Broncos, 5 yards +1% DEN +0.2 pts
Q3 0:30 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.6 pts
Q4 13:09 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q4 12:11 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +18% DEN +3.1 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 3:23 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q3 5:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars, 15 yardsJudgment callsIllegal Contact on the Broncos, 5 yardsJudgment calls +8% DEN DEN: Punt
3 Q4 13:08 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% JAX DEN: Punt
4 Q4 12:11 The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +18% DEN DEN: Punt
5 Q4 8:51 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% DEN JAX: Punt
6 Q4 2:58 C. Sutton dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 42 catchable balls before this +11% JAX DEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:10 The Broncos converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% DEN DEN: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:43 The Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Garett Bolles (DEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Ronald Darby (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Cameron Fleming (DEN T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Randy Gregory (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Caden Sterns (DEN FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Javonte Williams (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Baron Browning (DEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jacob Bobenmoyer (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 79% · Jaguars 21%

Final margin
Broncos by 4
Luck in points
3.6 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 7.6
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 37% · Jaguars 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Broncos · Jaguars

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