luckadjusted

Week 8 2022 · October 30, 2022

Giants at Seahawks, Week 8 2022: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Giants 27–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:52 left): the Giants converted 3rd & 11, worth 13 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 13
Seattle Seahawks 27

October 30, 2022 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −3

Luck index +18 Seahawks about even · −18 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 2, Seahawks win 8.

  1. 1 NYG 23 SEA 9
  2. 2 NYG 15 SEA 12
  3. 3 NYG 14 SEA 16
  4. 4 NYG 18 SEA 23
  5. 5 NYG 20 SEA 28
  6. 6 NYG 23 SEA 33
  7. 7 NYG 15 SEA 30
  8. 8 NYG 3 SEA 20
  9. 9 NYG 6 SEA 27
  10. 10 NYG 6 SEA 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 18% of them, Seahawks 82%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+1.5%
Giants by 9–165.1%
Giants by 1–810.7%
Level after regulation1.4%
Seahawks by 1–823.7%
Seahawks by 9–1622.1%
Seahawks by 17+35.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 14, without the luck Seahawks by 10.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Gano, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 51 yds made · 70% expected
  • G. Gano, 45 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 6 for 53 yards, Seahawks 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:53 Illegal Blindside Block on the Giants (Cam Brown), 15 yards +4% SEA +0.9 pts
Q1 7:19 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q1 0:38 Face Mask on the Giants (Jihad Ward), 15 yards +8% SEA +1.3 pts
Q2 8:43 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.6 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Formation on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% NYG +1.2 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants (Matt Breida), 8 yards +1% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 12:07 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Bruce Irvin), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% NYG +1.6 pts
Q3 10:28 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.8 pts
Q4 2:22 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks, 15 yards 0% NYG +1.4 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:38 Face Mask on the Giants (Jihad Ward), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1585 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +8% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:42 The Seahawks converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +7% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:37 The Seahawks fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYG SEA: Punt
4 Q2 2:39 The Giants fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% SEA NYG: Punt
5 Q3 10:03 The Giants converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +12% NYG NYG: Field goal
6 Q3 2:52 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedT. Lockett dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 49 catchable balls before this +10% NYG SEA: Field goal
7 Q3 1:52 The Giants converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +13% NYG NYG: Field goal
8 Q4 15:00 The Giants converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% NYG NYG: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashaad Penny (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Daniel Bellinger (NYG TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Oshane Ximines (NYG LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 2% · Seahawks 98%

Final margin
Seahawks by 14
Luck in points
3.7 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
Giants 18% · Seahawks 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2022 games · Giants · Seahawks

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