luckadjusted

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Commanders at Giants, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants and the Commanders tied 20–20. Replayed with the way both teams played, the Giants win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Commanders: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Commanders were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:35 left): the Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 38 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final (OT)

Washington Commanders 20
New York Giants 20

December 4, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Commanders −2.5

Luck index −41 Giants unlucky · +41 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 1, Giants win 9.

  1. 1 WAS 23 NYG 15
  2. 2 WAS 37 NYG 40
  3. 3 WAS 20 NYG 27
  4. 4 WAS 19 NYG 29
  5. 5 WAS 24 NYG 37
  6. 6 WAS 13 NYG 29
  7. 7 WAS 13 NYG 32
  8. 8 WAS 2 NYG 24
  9. 9 WAS 7 NYG 34
  10. 10 WAS 3 NYG 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Commanders

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 57% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.

48 points apart for the Commanders: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Commanders offenseEPA per play gained +0.10 +0.06 better by 0.04
Commanders defenseEPA per play allowed −0.02 +0.09 better by 0.11
Giants offenseEPA per play gained −0.02 +0.04 worse by 0.06
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.10 +0.14 better by 0.04

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 9% of them, Giants 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tie.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+0.5%
Commanders by 9–162.1%
Commanders by 1–85.9%
Level after regulation0.8%
Giants by 1–811.7%
Giants by 9–1620.0%
Giants by 17+59.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to the Commanders: the final margin was even, without the luck Giants by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • G. Gano, 48 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Slye, 42 yds made · 83% expected
  • G. Gano, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Slye, 52 yds missed · 67% expected
  • G. Gano, 58 yds missed · 63% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 7 for 55 yards, Giants 4 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:47 Defensive Holding on the Commanders (Kamren Curl), 5 yards +2% NYG +1.1 pts
Q2 4:49 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Fabian Moreau), 5 yards +8% WAS +1.3 pts
Q3 7:24 False Start on the Commanders (Logan Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.5 pts
Q3 5:42 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Commanders (Logan Thomas), 10 yards +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q4 12:02 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% NYG +2.0 pts
Q4 9:30 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 9 yards +3% WAS +1.0 pts
Q4 8:00 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Rachad Wildgoose), 8 yards +2% NYG +0.6 pts
Q4 7:48 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 5 yards +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q4 6:22 Taunting on the Giants, 15 yards +5% WAS +1.4 pts
Q4 1:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders, 12 yards +20% NYG +1.1 pts
QOT 1:42 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% WAS +0.3 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 1:45 D. Slayton dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 40 catchable balls before this +25% WAS NYG: Punt
2 Q4 1:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders, 12 yardsJudgment calls +20% NYG NYG: End of game
3 Q4 0:52 The Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 43% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +38% WAS WAS: Punt
4 Q4 0:35 The Commanders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 43% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +38% WAS WAS: Punt
5 QOT 8:09 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +19% WAS NYG: Punt
6 QOT 4:52 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +17% NYG WAS: Punt
7 QOT 1:50 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +24% WAS NYG: Punt
8 QOT 0:10 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +19% NYG NYG: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier McKinney (NYG FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Lawrence Cager (NYG TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Benjamin St-Juste (WAS CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Trai Turner (WAS G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 49% · Giants 51%

Final margin
even
Luck in points
0.9 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 9% · Giants 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Commanders · Giants

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