luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · November 24, 2022–November 28

Week 12 2022: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Jaguars beat the Ravens 28–27 in a game they win 20% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 12 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Raiders 40–34 @ Seahawks 38% 86% Deserved
Jaguars 28–27 vs Ravens 40% 20% Lucky
Browns 23–17 vs Buccaneers 41% 60% Deserved
Steelers 24–17 @ Colts 43% 75% Deserved
Panthers 23–10 vs Broncos 47% 59% Coin flip

Week 12 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jaguars W 28–27 vs Ravens 20% +80
2 Commanders W 19–13 vs Falcons 33% +67
3 Vikings W 33–26 vs Patriots 35% +65
4 Chargers W 25–24 @ Cardinals 48% +52
5 49ers W 13–0 vs Saints 56% +44
6 Panthers W 23–10 vs Broncos 59% +41
7 Eagles W 40–33 vs Packers 59% +41
8 Browns W 23–17 vs Buccaneers 60% +40
9 Cowboys W 28–20 vs Giants 65% +35
10 Steelers W 24–17 @ Colts 75% +25
11 Jets W 31–10 vs Bears 78% +22
12 Bills W 28–25 @ Lions 78% +22
13 Raiders W 40–34 @ Seahawks 86% +14
14 Bengals W 20–16 @ Titans 87% +13
15 Dolphins W 30–15 vs Texans 99% +1
16 Chiefs W 26–10 vs Rams 100% 0
17 Rams L 10–26 @ Chiefs 0% 0
18 Texans L 15–30 @ Dolphins 1% −1
19 Titans L 16–20 vs Bengals 13% −13
20 Seahawks L 34–40 vs Raiders 14% −14
21 Lions L 25–28 vs Bills 22% −22
22 Bears L 10–31 @ Jets 22% −22
23 Colts L 17–24 vs Steelers 25% −25
24 Giants L 20–28 @ Cowboys 35% −35
25 Buccaneers L 17–23 @ Browns 40% −40
26 Packers L 33–40 @ Eagles 41% −41
27 Broncos L 10–23 @ Panthers 41% −41
28 Saints L 0–13 @ 49ers 44% −44
29 Cardinals L 24–25 vs Chargers 52% −52
30 Patriots L 26–33 @ Vikings 65% −65
31 Falcons L 13–19 @ Commanders 67% −67
32 Ravens L 27–28 @ Jaguars 80% −80