2023 season · final

New England Patriots, 2023: game by game

The Patriots went 4–13 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.5 wins. Luck cost them 0.5: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–8.

Every game

How often the Patriots win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Eagles	L 20–25	33%	−33
Week 2	vs Dolphins	L 17–24	12%	−12
Week 3	@ Jets	W 15–10	92%	+8
Week 4	@ Cowboys	L 3–38	2%	−2
Week 5	vs Saints	L 0–34	12%	−12
Week 6	@ Raiders	L 17–21	5%	−5
Week 7	vs Bills	W 29–25	18%	+82
Week 8	@ Dolphins	L 17–31	4%	−4
Week 9	vs Commanders	L 17–20	26%	−26
Week 10	vs Colts	L 6–10	23%	−23
Week 12	@ Giants	L 7–10	62%	−62
Week 13	vs Chargers	L 0–6	27%	−27
Week 14	@ Steelers	W 21–18	47%	+53
Week 15	vs Chiefs	L 17–27	8%	−8
Week 16	@ Broncos	W 26–23	50%	+50
Week 17	@ Bills	L 21–27	23%	−23
Week 18	vs Jets	L 3–17	7%	−7

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −33 vs PHI

Wk 2 −12 vs MIA

Wk 3 +8 @ NYJ

Wk 4 −2 @ DAL

Wk 5 −12 vs NO

Wk 6 −5 @ LV

Wk 7 +82 vs BUF

Wk 8 −4 @ MIA

Wk 9 −26 vs WAS

Wk 10 −23 vs IND

Wk 12 −62 @ NYG

Wk 13 −27 vs LAC

Wk 14 +53 @ PIT

Wk 15 −8 vs KC

Wk 16 +50 @ DEN

Wk 17 −23 @ BUF

Wk 18 −7 vs NYJ

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Patriots’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Rest	+0.03	+1.2
Drops	−0.06	−1.9
Fumble bounces	−0.13	−12.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.40	−14.1
Injuries	−0.50	−19.8
Kicks	−0.52	−16.5
Judgment calls	−0.83	−11.6