luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 6, 2022

Vikings at Commanders, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Commanders 20–17, but the Commanders played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 13:46 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 14 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 20
Washington Commanders 17

November 6, 2022 · FedExField · Closing line: Vikings −3

Luck index +60 Vikings very lucky · −60 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 4, Commanders win 6.

  1. 1 MIN 27 WAS 9
  2. 2 MIN 24 WAS 13
  3. 3 MIN 13 WAS 7
  4. 4 MIN 23 WAS 20
  5. 5 MIN 24 WAS 26
  6. 6 MIN 16 WAS 21
  7. 7 MIN 26 WAS 34
  8. 8 MIN 17 WAS 28
  9. 9 MIN 16 WAS 32
  10. 10 MIN 6 WAS 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 40% of them, Commanders 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+6.4%
Vikings by 9–1612.3%
Vikings by 1–819.2%
Level after regulation3.2%
Commanders by 1–827.2%
Commanders by 9–1617.6%
Commanders by 17+14.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.1 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 3, without the luck Commanders by 4.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 44 yds made · 79% expected
  • G. Joseph, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Joseph, 28 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 5 for 42 yards, Commanders 3 for 26 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:00 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Rachad Wildgoose), 10 yards +3% MIN +0.8 pts
Q2 6:11 Low Block on the Vikings (Cameron Dantzler), 15 yards +3% WAS +2.2 pts
Q2 1:54 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Za'Darius Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.2 pts
Q2 0:14 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.4 pts
Q3 0:07 Face Mask on the Vikings (Za'Darius Smith), 12 yards, wiping out the play +8% WAS +1.3 pts
Q4 13:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 14 yards, wiping out the play +16% MIN +5.7 pts
Q4 9:15 Illegal Contact on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 1:55 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders, 2 yards +14% MIN +3.2 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:30 The Vikings converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q3 5:40 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +11% MIN WAS: Touchdown
3 Q4 13:46 The game turned hereDefensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 14 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 874 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +16% MIN MIN: Field goal
4 Q4 12:28 The Vikings converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% MIN MIN: Field goal
5 Q4 6:59 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% MIN WAS: Punt
6 Q4 2:41 The Vikings converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +11% MIN MIN: Field goal
7 Q4 1:55 Unnecessary Roughness on the Commanders, 2 yardsJudgment calls +14% MIN MIN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:16 G. Joseph made 28-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +15% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Samuel Cosmi (WAS T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jahan Dotson (WAS WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cole Turner (WAS TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Dalvin Tomlinson (MIN DT), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 41% · Commanders 59%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
7.1 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Commanders by 4.1
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 40% · Commanders 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Vikings · Commanders

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