luckadjusted

Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023

Buccaneers at Falcons, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers stole one. They beat the Falcons 29–25, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Falcons were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:16 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 10, worth 23 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29
Atlanta Falcons 25

December 10, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −1.5

Luck index +85 Buccaneers very lucky · −85 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 2, Falcons win 8.

  1. 1 TB 33 ATL 19
  2. 2 TB 17 ATL 14
  3. 3 TB 24 ATL 27
  4. 4 TB 23 ATL 29
  5. 5 TB 18 ATL 26
  6. 6 TB 16 ATL 27
  7. 7 TB 19 ATL 34
  8. 8 TB 13 ATL 33
  9. 9 TB 16 ATL 40
  10. 10 TB 13 ATL 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Buccaneers won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.

30 points apart for the Buccaneers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained −0.03 +0.04 worse by 0.08
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.07 +0.11 better by 0.04
Falcons offenseEPA per play gained +0.07 +0.06 better by 0.01
Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed −0.03 +0.09 better by 0.13

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 15% of them, Falcons 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+1.3%
Buccaneers by 9–163.5%
Buccaneers by 1–89.2%
Level after regulation1.6%
Falcons by 1–820.0%
Falcons by 9–1623.4%
Falcons by 17+41.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 4, without the luck Buccaneers by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 55 yds made · 66% expected
  • Y. Koo, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • Y. Koo, 50 yds missed · 81% expected
  • Y. Koo, 52 yds missed · 77% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 4 for 26 yards, Falcons 2 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 1:16 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.6 pts
Q3 14:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the play +16% ATL +3.0 pts
Q3 9:45 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.6 pts
Q4 14:14 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Buccaneers (Josh Hayes), 5 yards +2% ATL +0.4 pts
Q4 13:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 11 yards +4% ATL +2.1 pts
Q4 1:28 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Clark Phillips), 5 yards +8% TB +0.5 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:38 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% ATL ATL: Field goal
2 Q2 4:24 Y. Koo missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 44 of 52 from 45+ before +9% TB ATL: Safety
3 Q3 14:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 32 flags in 4680 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +16% ATL ATL: Punt
4 Q3 9:58 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedC. Godwin dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 190 catchable balls before this +10% ATL TB: Punt
5 Q3 4:14 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +18% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:54 The Falcons converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +15% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:00 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:16 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +23% TB TB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Drew Dalman (ATL C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jeff Okudah (ATL CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Grady Jarrett (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Onyemata (ATL DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Devin White (TB LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Vita Vea (TB NT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 63% · Falcons 37%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 4
Luck in points
2.9 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 15% · Falcons 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Buccaneers · Falcons

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