luckadjusted

Week 14 2023 · December 11, 2023

Titans at Dolphins, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Titans stole one. They beat the Dolphins 28–27, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 10 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:31 left): Return touchdown by the Dolphins, worth 24 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Tennessee Titans 28
Miami Dolphins 27

December 11, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −14

Luck index +95 Titans very lucky · −95 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 0, Dolphins win 10.

  1. 1 TEN 22 MIA 24
  2. 2 TEN 31 MIA 36
  3. 3 TEN 21 MIA 29
  4. 4 TEN 14 MIA 25
  5. 5 TEN 10 MIA 24
  6. 6 TEN 16 MIA 34
  7. 7 TEN 31 MIA 52
  8. 8 TEN 7 MIA 32
  9. 9 TEN 17 MIA 48
  10. 10 TEN 13 MIA 53

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 5% of them, Dolphins 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.3%
Titans by 9–160.8%
Titans by 1–83.5%
Level after regulation0.9%
Dolphins by 1–88.6%
Dolphins by 9–1617.3%
Dolphins by 17+68.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 1, without the luck Dolphins by 4.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 44 yds blocked · 80% expected
  • N. Folk, 28 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Sanders, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • N. Folk, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Sanders, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 9 for 59 yards, Dolphins 7 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:14 False Start on the Titans, 3 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.7 pts
Q1 1:00 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +2% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 8:44 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Dolphins (Bradley Chubb), 13 yards +5% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 1:18 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +4% MIA +0.8 pts
Q2 0:48 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.3 pts
Q2 0:18 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIA +0.3 pts
Q3 11:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Sean Murphy-Bunting), 17 yards +7% MIA +1.7 pts
Q3 3:44 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIA +0.7 pts
Q3 3:00 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +14% MIA +2.4 pts
Q4 15:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% MIA +0.5 pts
Q4 12:41 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Dolphins, 15 yards +9% TEN +1.4 pts
Q4 12:37 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins (Brandon Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.4 pts
Q4 8:04 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +1% TEN +0.5 pts
Q4 4:43 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Arden Key), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.5 pts
Q4 3:08 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.5 pts
Q4 1:53 Defensive Delay of Game on the Dolphins (Zach Sieler), 3 yards · pre-snap +4% TEN +1.0 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:18 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% MIA MIA: Turnover
2 Q1 8:31 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +24% MIA TEN: Punt
3 Q3 3:00 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +14% MIA MIA: Field goal
4 Q3 1:16 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +12% TEN TEN: Field goal
5 Q4 13:27 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +13% TEN MIA: Field goal
6 Q4 6:47 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% TEN MIA: Punt
7 Q4 6:16 The Titans fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% MIA TEN: Turnover
8 Q4 0:26 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +23% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Terron Armstead (MIA T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Eli Apple (MIA CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jevon Holland (MIA SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jerome Baker (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Robert Hunt (MIA G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jeffery Simmons (TEN DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Stonehouse (TEN P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 28% · Dolphins 72%

Final margin
Titans by 1
Luck in points
5.7 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 4.7
Replay with same day's form
Titans 5% · Dolphins 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Titans · Dolphins

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