luckadjusted

Week 14 2023 · December 11, 2023

Packers at Giants, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Packers 24–22, but the Packers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Packers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): R. Bullock made 37-yard field goal, worth 41 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Green Bay Packers 22
New York Giants 24

December 11, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Packers −6

Luck index +73 Giants very lucky · −73 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 7, Giants win 3.

  1. 1 GB 46 NYG 18
  2. 2 GB 30 NYG 9
  3. 3 GB 31 NYG 16
  4. 4 GB 23 NYG 12
  5. 5 GB 30 NYG 22
  6. 6 GB 24 NYG 20
  7. 7 GB 23 NYG 21
  8. 8 GB 17 NYG 19
  9. 9 GB 16 NYG 24
  10. 10 GB 13 NYG 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 73% of them, Giants 27%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+25.6%
Packers by 9–1620.4%
Packers by 1–824.6%
Level after regulation3.8%
Giants by 1–813.9%
Giants by 9–168.1%
Giants by 17+3.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 points to the Packers: the final margin was Giants by 2, without the luck Giants by 5.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 48 yds missed · 64% expected
  • A. Carlson, 36 yds made · 88% expected
  • A. Carlson, 32 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. Carlson, 45 yds missed · 72% expected
  • A. Carlson, 48 yds made · 65% expected
  • R. Bullock, 37 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 4 for 39 yards, Giants 5 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:57 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.9 pts
Q1 12:39 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (D.J. Davidson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.8 pts
Q1 10:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Carrington Valentine), 13 yards +4% NYG +1.5 pts
Q1 9:00 Illegal Blindside Block on the Packers, 6 yards +2% NYG +0.5 pts
Q1 7:21 Kick Catch Interference on the Packers (Rudy Ford), 15 yards +4% NYG +0.9 pts
Q1 6:26 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 6:10 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +1.1 pts
Q2 1:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Cordale Flott), 27 yards +10% GB +2.4 pts
Q3 6:53 False Start on the Giants (Saquon Barkley), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +1.1 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:52 The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +10% GB GB: Turnover
2 Q2 7:47 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedThe Packers fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% NYG GB: Turnover
3 Q2 1:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Cordale Flott), 27 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 750 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +9% GB GB: Field goal
4 Q3 9:16 The Giants fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% GB NYG: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:35 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:26 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% NYG GB: Missed field goal
7 Q4 4:01 The Giants fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% GB NYG: Field goal
8 Q4 0:02 R. Bullock made 37-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +41% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out (IR), replaced by t.devito · 1.9 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Darren Waller (NYG TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Luke Musgrave (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Quay Walker (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Aaron Jones (GB RB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 16% · Giants 84%

Final margin
Giants by 2
Luck in points
3.8 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 5.8
Replay with same day's form
Packers 73% · Giants 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Packers · Giants

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