luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · December 7, 2023–December 11

Week 14 2023: who deserved to win

4 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Titans beat the Dolphins 28–27 in a game they win 5% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 14 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 8 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Titans 28–27 @ Dolphins 15% 5% Lucky
Patriots 21–18 @ Steelers 33% 47% Coin flip
Giants 24–22 vs Packers 33% 27% Lucky
Jets 30–6 vs Texans 40% 65% Deserved
Bears 28–13 vs Lions 41% 85% Deserved
Broncos 24–7 @ Chargers 41% 86% Deserved
Bills 20–17 @ Chiefs 44% 53% Coin flip
Buccaneers 29–25 @ Falcons 46% 15% Lucky

Week 14 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Titans W 28–27 @ Dolphins 5% +95
2 Buccaneers W 29–25 @ Falcons 15% +85
3 Giants W 24–22 vs Packers 27% +73
4 Patriots W 21–18 @ Steelers 47% +53
5 Bills W 20–17 @ Chiefs 53% +47
6 Browns W 31–27 vs Jaguars 59% +41
7 Jets W 30–6 vs Texans 65% +35
8 Cowboys W 33–13 vs Eagles 74% +26
9 Bears W 28–13 vs Lions 85% +15
10 Broncos W 24–7 @ Chargers 86% +14
11 Ravens W 37–31 vs Rams 87% +13
12 Bengals W 34–14 vs Colts 88% +12
13 Vikings W 3–0 @ Raiders 88% +12
14 Saints W 28–6 vs Panthers 93% +7
15 49ers W 28–16 vs Seahawks 97% +3
16 Seahawks L 16–28 @ 49ers 3% −3
17 Panthers L 6–28 @ Saints 7% −7
18 Raiders L 0–3 vs Vikings 12% −12
19 Colts L 14–34 @ Bengals 12% −12
20 Rams L 31–37 @ Ravens 13% −13
21 Chargers L 7–24 vs Broncos 14% −14
22 Lions L 13–28 @ Bears 15% −15
23 Eagles L 13–33 @ Cowboys 26% −26
24 Texans L 6–30 @ Jets 35% −35
25 Jaguars L 27–31 @ Browns 41% −41
26 Chiefs L 17–20 vs Bills 47% −47
27 Steelers L 18–21 vs Patriots 53% −53
28 Packers L 22–24 @ Giants 73% −73
29 Falcons L 25–29 vs Buccaneers 85% −85
30 Dolphins L 27–28 vs Titans 95% −95