luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Cincinnati Bengals, 2023: game by game

The Bengals went 9–8 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.2 wins. Luck added 2.8: the luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–4.

Every game

How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Browns L 3–24 12% −12
Week 2 vs Ravens L 24–27 46% −46
Week 3 vs Rams W 19–16 31% +69
Week 4 @ Titans L 3–27 57% −57
Week 5 @ Cardinals W 34–20 65% +36
Week 6 vs Seahawks W 17–13 27% +73
Week 8 @ 49ers W 31–17 14% +86
Week 9 vs Bills W 24–18 16% +84
Week 10 vs Texans L 27–30 17% −17
Week 11 @ Ravens L 20–34 4% −4
Week 12 vs Steelers L 10–16 15% −15
Week 13 @ Jaguars W 34–31 62% +38
Week 14 vs Colts W 34–14 88% +12
Week 15 vs Vikings W 27–24 26% +74
Week 16 @ Steelers L 11–34 31% −31
Week 17 @ Chiefs L 17–25 11% −11
Week 18 vs Browns W 31–14 93% +7

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.66+11.9
3rd & 4th downs+0.34−5.6
Kicks+0.16−5.0
Fumble bounces−0.06+7.9
Drops−0.22−2.2
Injuries−0.23−10.8