luckadjusted

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Steelers at Bengals, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Bengals 16–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:45 left): the Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 28 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 16
Cincinnati Bengals 10

November 26, 2023 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −2

Luck index +15 Steelers about even · −15 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 9, Bengals win 1.

  1. 1 PIT 26 CIN 0
  2. 2 PIT 28 CIN 7
  3. 3 PIT 30 CIN 14
  4. 4 PIT 17 CIN 3
  5. 5 PIT 26 CIN 15
  6. 6 PIT 23 CIN 13
  7. 7 PIT 24 CIN 17
  8. 8 PIT 13 CIN 9
  9. 9 PIT 10 CIN 7
  10. 10 PIT 10 CIN 15

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 85% of them, Bengals 15%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+36.7%
Steelers by 9–1622.9%
Steelers by 1–825.4%
Level after regulation1.4%
Bengals by 1–89.3%
Bengals by 9–163.5%
Bengals by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 6, without the luck Steelers by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Boswell, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • E. McPherson, 47 yds made · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 5 for 55 yards, Bengals 5 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:42 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Mark Robinson), 10 yards +2% CIN +1.0 pts
Q1 5:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Logan Wilson), 6 yards +3% PIT +1.5 pts
Q1 2:47 False Start on the Bengals (Tyler Boyd), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.8 pts
Q1 1:42 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.6 pts
Q2 2:40 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 15 yards +5% CIN +1.0 pts
Q2 0:48 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +5% CIN +1.2 pts
Q3 0:08 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Irv Smith Jr.), 10 yards +6% PIT +1.3 pts
Q4 14:20 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals, 10 yards +9% PIT +1.9 pts
Q4 13:16 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +5% CIN +0.9 pts
Q4 11:50 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Miles Boykin), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CIN +1.8 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:08 The Steelers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +14% PIT PIT: Turnover
2 Q1 4:45 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +28% CIN PIT: Field goal
3 Q2 14:21 The Steelers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +14% PIT PIT: Field goal
4 Q3 9:30 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% PIT CIN: Punt
5 Q4 15:00 The Bengals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% CIN CIN: Punt
6 Q4 14:20 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q4 10:01 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +13% PIT PIT: Field goal
8 Q4 6:42 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +10% PIT CIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.browning · 7.2 pts
  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT FS), out · 0.9 pts
  • Keanu Neal (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Montravius Adams (PIT NT), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 90% · Bengals 10%

Final margin
Steelers by 6
Luck in points
4.4 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 85% · Bengals 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Steelers · Bengals

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