luckadjusted

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Ravens at Chargers, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Chargers 20–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:57 left): the Chargers were stopped on 4th & 6, worth 31 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 20
Los Angeles Chargers 10

November 26, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +12 Ravens about even · −12 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 9, Chargers win 1.

  1. 1 BAL 38 LAC 10
  2. 2 BAL 27 LAC 3
  3. 3 BAL 32 LAC 13
  4. 4 BAL 19 LAC 3
  5. 5 BAL 19 LAC 6
  6. 6 BAL 24 LAC 14
  7. 7 BAL 33 LAC 26
  8. 8 BAL 20 LAC 15
  9. 9 BAL 26 LAC 24
  10. 10 BAL 17 LAC 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 88% of them, Chargers 12%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+43.6%
Ravens by 9–1623.3%
Ravens by 1–819.9%
Level after regulation1.3%
Chargers by 1–88.4%
Chargers by 9–162.7%
Chargers by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Ravens by 10, without the luck Ravens by 11.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 39 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Tucker, 42 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Tucker, 48 yds made · 81% expected
  • J. Tucker, 44 yds missed · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 5 for 42 yards, Chargers 5 for 41 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers, 15 yards +4% BAL +1.4 pts
Q1 2:02 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Gus Edwards), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% LAC +1.8 pts
Q2 10:41 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC 0.0 pts
Q2 8:58 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Ravens, 10 yards +4% LAC +1.0 pts
Q2 3:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Austin Johnson), 6 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.5 pts
Q3 8:36 Intentional Grounding on the Ravens (Lamar Jackson), 12 yards +1% LAC +1.4 pts
Q3 2:17 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.2 pts
Q3 0:07 Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% BAL +0.7 pts
Q4 6:30 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.6 pts
Q4 1:57 Intentional Grounding on the Chargers (Justin Herbert), 10 yards +7% BAL +1.5 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:50 The Chargers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +10% LAC LAC: Field goal
2 Q1 2:02 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Gus Edwards), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1428 snaps before, position avg 1 per 870 +8% LAC LAC: Punt
3 Q2 4:18 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +10% LAC BAL: Field goal
4 Q4 12:40 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Chargers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% BAL LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:02 J. Tucker missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +21% LAC BAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:00 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% BAL LAC: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:57 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Chargers (Justin Herbert), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 4200 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 +31% BAL LAC: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:44 The Ravens converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joey Bosa (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Josh Palmer (LAC WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 96% · Chargers 4%

Final margin
Ravens by 10
Luck in points
1.6 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 11.6
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 88% · Chargers 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Ravens · Chargers

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