luckadjusted

Week 12 2023 · November 23, 2023

Commanders at Cowboys, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Commanders 45–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:54 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 7, worth 9 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Washington Commanders 10
Dallas Cowboys 45

November 23, 2023 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −13

Luck index +25 Cowboys about even · −25 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Commanders win 2, Cowboys win 8.

  1. 1 WAS 23 DAL 10
  2. 2 WAS 17 DAL 14
  3. 3 WAS 14 DAL 16
  4. 4 WAS 16 DAL 21
  5. 5 WAS 29 DAL 37
  6. 6 WAS 6 DAL 16
  7. 7 WAS 16 DAL 29
  8. 8 WAS 17 DAL 33
  9. 9 WAS 24 DAL 45
  10. 10 WAS 17 DAL 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Commanders win 25% of them, Cowboys 75%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Commanders by 17+2.9%
Commanders by 9–166.3%
Commanders by 1–814.3%
Level after regulation3.8%
Cowboys by 1–826.3%
Cowboys by 9–1621.2%
Cowboys by 17+25.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.1 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 35, without the luck Cowboys by 29.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 52 yds made · 74% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Commanders 4 for 25 yards, Cowboys 7 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:59 Illegal Contact on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 5 yards +1% DAL +0.3 pts
Q1 10:11 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Sam Williams), 15 yards +4% WAS +0.9 pts
Q1 5:53 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q1 3:29 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% WAS +1.5 pts
Q1 3:19 False Start on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.3 pts
Q2 6:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 3 yards +1% WAS +0.3 pts
Q2 4:56 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Dante Fowler), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.2 pts
Q2 1:51 Encroachment on the Commanders (Jonathan Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.8 pts
Q2 0:13 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q3 4:04 False Start on the Commanders (Logan Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q3 0:46 Illegal Motion on the Cowboys (Sean McKeon), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +1.4 pts

Commanders penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Commanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:47 The Commanders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +5% WAS WAS: Punt
2 Q1 10:11 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Sam Williams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 933 snaps before, position avg 1 per 295 +4% WAS WAS: Punt
3 Q1 6:08 B. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 40 catchable balls before this +5% DAL WAS: Punt
4 Q1 2:54 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:01 The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% WAS WAS: Field goal
6 Q2 11:31 J. Slye made 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +4% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:40 The Commanders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +5% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q3 2:15 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% DAL DAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jayron Kearse (DAL FS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Saahdiq Charles (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Commanders 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 35
Luck in points
5.1 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 29.9
Replay with same day's form
Commanders 25% · Cowboys 75% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Commanders · Cowboys

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