luckadjusted

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Jaguars at Texans, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Texans 24–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:40 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 8, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 24
Houston Texans 21

November 26, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −1

Luck index +38 Jaguars lucky · −38 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 6, Texans win 4.

  1. 1 JAX 33 HOU 7
  2. 2 JAX 30 HOU 14
  3. 3 JAX 21 HOU 10
  4. 4 JAX 10 HOU 3
  5. 5 JAX 31 HOU 27
  6. 6 JAX 33 HOU 31
  7. 7 JAX 17 HOU 19
  8. 8 JAX 7 HOU 13
  9. 9 JAX 30 HOU 42
  10. 10 JAX 7 HOU 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 62% of them, Texans 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+16.0%
Jaguars by 9–1616.2%
Jaguars by 1–827.5%
Level after regulation3.0%
Texans by 1–818.7%
Texans by 9–1612.1%
Texans by 17+6.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +16.4 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 3, without the luck Texans by 13.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • B. McManus, 48 yds made · 81% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 50 yds missed · 70% expected
  • B. McManus, 53 yds made · 73% expected
  • B. McManus, 55 yds missed · 70% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 58 yds missed · 57% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 6 for 35 yards, Texans 7 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:09 Delay of Game on the Texans, 6 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.6 pts
Q1 5:54 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% JAX +1.7 pts
Q1 0:20 Illegal Shift on the Texans (Tank Dell), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +19% JAX +6.8 pts
Q2 9:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (DeAndre Houston-Carson), 4 yards +4% JAX +3.3 pts
Q2 6:37 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 0:10 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.2 pts
Q3 14:16 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 6:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Tavierre Thomas), 15 yards +5% JAX +1.7 pts
Q3 5:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Tavierre Thomas), 4 yards +6% JAX +2.2 pts
Q3 1:13 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Steven Nelson), 5 yards +4% JAX +2.1 pts
Q4 13:51 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +2% HOU +1.3 pts
Q4 11:38 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +1.3 pts
Q4 3:01 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Tre Herndon), 5 yards +4% HOU +0.9 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:00 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +12% JAX JAX: Field goal
2 Q1 0:20 Illegal Shift on the Texans (Tank Dell), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 472 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +19% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:10 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedFalse Start on the Jaguars, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% JAX JAX: End of half
4 Q4 5:22 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +13% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:17 The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% JAX JAX: Punt
6 Q4 1:40 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +20% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:47 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% JAX HOU: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:34 M. Ammendola missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 3 of 9 from 45+ before +16% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Noah Brown (HOU WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kendrick Green (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jarrett Patterson (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 6% · Texans 94%

Final margin
Jaguars by 3
Luck in points
16.4 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 13.4
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 62% · Texans 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Jaguars · Texans

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