luckadjusted

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Browns at Broncos, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Browns 29–12 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:46 left): the Browns converted 4th & 2, worth 15 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 12
Denver Broncos 29

November 26, 2023 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −1.5

Luck index +21 Broncos about even · −21 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 2, Broncos win 8.

  1. 1 CLE 17 DEN 3
  2. 2 CLE 20 DEN 17
  3. 3 CLE 7 DEN 9
  4. 4 CLE 24 DEN 29
  5. 5 CLE 9 DEN 17
  6. 6 CLE 13 DEN 23
  7. 7 CLE 3 DEN 16
  8. 8 CLE 0 DEN 17
  9. 9 CLE 9 DEN 30
  10. 10 CLE 6 DEN 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 21% of them, Broncos 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+2.2%
Browns by 9–166.3%
Browns by 1–812.0%
Level after regulation2.2%
Broncos by 1–824.8%
Broncos by 9–1621.1%
Broncos by 17+31.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.9 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 17, without the luck Broncos by 11.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • W. Lutz, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • W. Lutz, 34 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 8 for 66 yards, Broncos 8 for 71 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 34 yards +12% DEN +3.9 pts
Q1 10:12 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Alex Wright), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.3 pts
Q1 5:34 False Start on the Browns, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +1.1 pts
Q1 0:47 Offensive Holding on the Broncos (Lil'Jordan Humphrey), 10 yards +2% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 12:59 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.5 pts
Q2 11:21 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Alex Wright), 3 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.6 pts
Q2 4:38 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.6 pts
Q2 4:21 Offensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Courtland Sutton), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% CLE +3.0 pts
Q3 8:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 6 yards +5% CLE +1.8 pts
Q3 6:42 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Shelby Harris), 5 yards +1% DEN +0.5 pts
Q3 0:38 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.8 pts
Q3 0:22 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Baron Browning), 15 yards +8% CLE +1.7 pts
Q4 12:53 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.9 pts
Q4 10:14 False Start on the Broncos (Tremon Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.4 pts
Q4 10:07 Face Mask on the Broncos (Jonathon Cooper), 15 yards +2% CLE +2.0 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.1 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 34 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2136 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +12% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:59 The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:40 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expectedThe Browns fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DEN CLE: Punt
4 Q3 6:46 The Browns converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +15% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q3 6:42 The Browns’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedA. Cooper dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 143 catchable balls before thisDefensive Holding on the Browns (Shelby Harris), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2769 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +14% DEN CLE: Turnover
6 Q3 1:25 D. Njoku dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 124 catchable balls before this +8% DEN CLE: Turnover
7 Q3 0:22 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Baron Browning), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1323 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +8% CLE CLE: Turnover
8 Q4 13:37 The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% DEN DEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kareem Jackson (DEN SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 7% · Broncos 93%

Final margin
Broncos by 17
Luck in points
5.9 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 11.1
Replay with same day's form
Browns 21% · Broncos 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Browns · Broncos

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