2023 season · final
Baltimore Ravens, 2023: game by game
The Ravens went 13–4 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 13.8 wins. Luck cost them 0.8: the 10th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.4.
Every game
How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Texans | W 25–9 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 2 | @ Bengals | W 27–24 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 3 | vs Colts | L 19–22 | 67% | −67 |
| Week 4 | @ Browns | W 28–3 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 5 | @ Steelers | L 10–17 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 6 | @ Titans | W 24–16 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 7 | vs Lions | W 38–6 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 8 | @ Cardinals | W 31–24 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 9 | vs Seahawks | W 37–3 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 10 | vs Browns | L 31–33 | 86% | −86 |
| Week 11 | vs Bengals | W 34–20 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 12 | @ Chargers | W 20–10 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 14 | vs Rams | W 37–31 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 15 | @ Jaguars | W 23–7 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 16 | @ 49ers | W 33–19 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 17 | vs Dolphins | W 56–19 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 18 | vs Steelers | L 10–17 | 83% | −83 |
| Divisional round | vs Texans | W 34–10 | 86% | +14 |
| AFC Championship | vs Chiefs | L 10–17 | 51% | −51 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.52 | +9.0 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.8 |
| Injuries | −0.33 | −11.5 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.33 | −6.3 |
| Drops | −0.34 | −3.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.63 | −15.3 |
| Kicks | −1.44 | −9.6 |