luckadjusted

Divisional round 2023 · January 20, 2024

Texans at Ravens, Divisional round 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Texans 34–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:46 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 8, worth 13 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 10
Baltimore Ravens 34

January 20, 2024 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −10

Luck index +14 Ravens about even · −14 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 HOU 16 BAL 10
  2. 2 HOU 7 BAL 9
  3. 3 HOU 9 BAL 13
  4. 4 HOU 9 BAL 16
  5. 5 HOU 17 BAL 27
  6. 6 HOU 7 BAL 19
  7. 7 HOU 16 BAL 31
  8. 8 HOU 6 BAL 24
  9. 9 HOU 10 BAL 31
  10. 10 HOU 13 BAL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 14% of them, Ravens 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.7%
Texans by 9–163.6%
Texans by 1–89.1%
Level after regulation1.4%
Ravens by 1–824.3%
Ravens by 9–1622.8%
Ravens by 17+38.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.7 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 24, without the luck Ravens by 17.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 53 yds made · 60% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 61% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 47 yds missed · 68% expected
  • J. Tucker, 43 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 11 for 70 yards, Ravens 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:14 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% BAL +0.7 pts
Q1 5:17 Intentional Grounding on the Texans (C.J. Stroud), 10 yards +3% BAL +1.0 pts
Q1 5:14 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.2 pts
Q1 3:28 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Kris Boyd), 10 yards +3% BAL +0.6 pts
Q1 2:19 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +0.6 pts
Q1 0:40 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q2 5:54 Encroachment on the Texans (Desmond King), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.6 pts
Q2 5:30 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q2 2:25 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.5 pts
Q3 9:27 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Brandon Stephens), 5 yards +3% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 0:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (Jonathan Greenard), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.4 pts
Q4 12:46 Illegal Shift on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +1.3 pts
Q4 6:07 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards 0% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 5:41 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.2 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:46 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +13% HOU HOU: Punt
2 Q1 2:43 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% HOU HOU: Field goal
3 Q1 0:40 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedDelay of Game on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% BAL HOU: Field goal
4 Q1 0:33 K. Fairbairn made 50-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 28 of 42 from 45+ before +8% HOU HOU: Punt
5 Q2 4:34 Return touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +13% HOU HOU: Opp touchdown
6 Q2 2:00 The Texans converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +11% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
7 Q2 0:37 K. Fairbairn missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 29 of 43 from 45+ before +9% BAL HOU: End of half
8 Q3 2:12 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +10% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.4 pts
  • Jerry Hughes (HOU DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Noah Brown (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 0% · Ravens 100%

Final margin
Ravens by 24
Luck in points
6.7 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 17.3
Replay with same day's form
Texans 14% · Ravens 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2023 games · Texans · Ravens

More from Divisional round 2023