Divisional round 2023 · January 21, 2024
Buccaneers at Lions, Divisional round 2023: who deserved to win?
The Lions beat the Buccaneers 31–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.
Before kickoff the Lions were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:16 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 10, worth 14 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.
Final
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Lions lucky · −27 Buccaneers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Buccaneers win 3, Lions win 7.
- 1 TB 38 DET 21
- 2 TB 35 DET 27
- 3 TB 23 DET 20
- 4 TB 15 DET 17
- 5 TB 21 DET 25
- 6 TB 16 DET 24
- 7 TB 28 DET 40
- 8 TB 31 DET 46
- 9 TB 13 DET 33
- 10 TB 10 DET 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Buccaneers win 27% of them, Lions 73%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 4.5% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 7.1% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 14.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.0% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 25.3% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| Lions by 17+ | 26.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Badgley, 23 yds made · 97% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 43 yds made · 85% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 50 yds missed · 76% expected
Penalties: Buccaneers 5 for 33 yards, Lions 3 for 17 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:34 | Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Calijah Kancey), 5 yards | +2% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q1 10:12 | Face Mask on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 8 yards | +3% DET +1.1 pts |
| Q2 11:19 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Cade Otton), 10 yards | +4% DET +1.9 pts |
| Q3 10:18 | Chop Block on the Lions (David Montgomery), 7 yards, wiping out the play | +13% TB +4.4 pts |
| Q3 8:22 | Illegal Formation on the Buccaneers (SirVocea Dennis), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.4 pts |
| Q3 3:48 | Defensive Offside on the Lions (Brian Branch), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% TB +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:29 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (Ifeatu Melifonwu), 5 yards | 0% TB +0.1 pts |
| Q4 3:09 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards | +1% DET +0.5 pts |
Buccaneers penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2023
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:21 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedThe Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +11% DET | TB: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 15:00 | The Lions converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +8% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 2:29 | C. McLaughlin missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 39 of 53 from 45+ before | +9% DET | TB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 11:31 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +13% DET | TB: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 10:18 | Chop Block on the Lions (David Montgomery), 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 3167 snaps before, position avg 1 per 870 | +13% TB | TB: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 6:57 | The Lions converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +9% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 3:51 | The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +12% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 0:16 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +14% TB | TB: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Buccaneers 25% · Lions 75%
- Final margin
- Lions by 8
- Luck in points
- 3.2 for the Lions
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 4.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Buccaneers 27% · Lions 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2023 games · 
Buccaneers · 
Lions
More from Divisional round 2023
- Texans at Ravens BAL 34–10 · replay 86% for the winner
- Packers at 49ers SF 24–21 · replay 71% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bills KC 27–24 · replay 63% for the winner