luckadjusted

Week 1 2023 · September 10, 2023

Texans at Ravens, Week 1 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Texans 25–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 8 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:25 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 16 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 9
Baltimore Ravens 25

September 10, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −9.5

Luck index +19 Ravens about even · −19 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 2, Ravens win 8.

  1. 1 HOU 27 BAL 16
  2. 2 HOU 13 BAL 10
  3. 3 HOU 10 BAL 13
  4. 4 HOU 13 BAL 18
  5. 5 HOU 15 BAL 23
  6. 6 HOU 6 BAL 16
  7. 7 HOU 17 BAL 30
  8. 8 HOU 13 BAL 30
  9. 9 HOU 10 BAL 30
  10. 10 HOU 3 BAL 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 19% of them, Ravens 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+1.1%
Texans by 9–165.1%
Texans by 1–811.4%
Level after regulation2.1%
Ravens by 1–826.5%
Ravens by 9–1621.8%
Ravens by 17+32.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 16, without the luck Ravens by 14.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Tucker, 39 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 9 for 88 yards, Ravens 13 for 106 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Ravens (Geno Stone), 8 yards +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q1 11:06 Running Into the Kicker on the Ravens (Ar'Darius Washington), 5 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 8:27 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.8 pts
Q1 6:39 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% BAL +2.1 pts
Q1 3:10 Illegal Motion on the Ravens (Gus Edwards), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 1:20 Low Block on the Texans (Jalen Pitre), 4 yards +2% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 14:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Steven Nelson), 26 yards +3% BAL +1.8 pts
Q2 14:10 Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% HOU +1.4 pts
Q2 13:03 Intentional Grounding on the Ravens (Lamar Jackson), 14 yards +3% HOU +1.7 pts
Q2 2:01 False Start on the Ravens (Isaiah Likely), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.3 pts
Q2 1:54 Face Mask on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 15 yards +6% HOU +1.8 pts
Q2 0:31 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Travis Jones), 15 yards +11% HOU +1.5 pts
Q2 0:31 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +0.7 pts
Q3 9:55 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 5 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 9:55 Defensive Offside on the Texans (Maliek Collins), 1 yard · pre-snap +1% HOU 0.0 pts
Q3 8:59 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +3% BAL +1.3 pts
Q3 6:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 17 yards +1% BAL +1.5 pts
Q3 2:20 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% BAL +2.1 pts
Q3 0:04 Face Mask on the Ravens (Nnamdi Madubuike), 9 yards +1% HOU +1.2 pts
Q4 14:55 Illegal Shift on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% BAL +1.1 pts
Q4 13:09 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.8 pts
Q4 6:45 Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.8 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:44 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +8% HOU BAL: Punt
2 Q1 10:59 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +10% BAL HOU: Punt
3 Q1 7:25 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% HOU BAL: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:10 Illegal Motion on the Ravens (Gus Edwards), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 1104 snaps before, position avg 1 per 870 +6% HOU HOU: Punt
5 Q1 1:39 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:03 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Ravens (Lamar Jackson), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 3639 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 +8% HOU BAL: Punt
7 Q2 0:31 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Travis Jones), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 465 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316False Start on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% HOU HOU: Field goal
8 Q3 11:54 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.4 pts
  • Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Nick Moore (BAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Scott Quessenberry (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cameron Johnston (HOU P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 3% · Ravens 97%

Final margin
Ravens by 16
Luck in points
1.7 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 14.3
Replay with same day's form
Texans 19% · Ravens 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2023 games · Texans · Ravens

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