luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · December 14, 2023–December 18

Week 15 2023: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Seahawks beat the Eagles 20–17 in a game they win 18% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 15 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Seahawks 20–17 vs Eagles 36% 18% Lucky
Buccaneers 34–20 @ Packers 38% 75% Deserved
Panthers 9–7 vs Falcons 41% 56% Coin flip
Texans 19–16 @ Titans 41% 84% Deserved

Week 15 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Seahawks W 20–17 vs Eagles 18% +82
2 Bengals W 27–24 vs Vikings 26% +74
3 Panthers W 9–7 vs Falcons 56% +44
4 Buccaneers W 34–20 @ Packers 75% +25
5 Rams W 28–20 vs Commanders 75% +25
6 Texans W 19–16 @ Titans 84% +16
7 Raiders W 63–21 vs Chargers 87% +13
8 Lions W 42–17 vs Broncos 88% +12
9 Browns W 20–17 vs Bears 88% +12
10 Chiefs W 27–17 @ Patriots 92% +8
11 Bills W 31–10 vs Cowboys 95% +5
12 Ravens W 23–7 @ Jaguars 96% +4
13 Colts W 30–13 vs Steelers 96% +4
14 Saints W 24–6 vs Giants 98% +2
15 49ers W 45–29 @ Cardinals 99% +1
16 Dolphins W 30–0 vs Jets 100% 0
17 Jets L 0–30 @ Dolphins 0% 0
18 Cardinals L 29–45 vs 49ers 1% −1
19 Giants L 6–24 @ Saints 2% −2
20 Steelers L 13–30 @ Colts 4% −4
21 Jaguars L 7–23 vs Ravens 4% −4
22 Cowboys L 10–31 @ Bills 5% −5
23 Patriots L 17–27 vs Chiefs 8% −8
24 Bears L 17–20 @ Browns 12% −12
25 Broncos L 17–42 @ Lions 12% −12
26 Chargers L 21–63 @ Raiders 13% −13
27 Titans L 16–19 vs Texans 16% −16
28 Packers L 20–34 vs Buccaneers 25% −25
29 Commanders L 20–28 @ Rams 25% −25
30 Falcons L 7–9 @ Panthers 44% −44
31 Vikings L 24–27 @ Bengals 74% −74
32 Eagles L 17–20 @ Seahawks 82% −82