luckadjusted

Week 14 2023 · December 10, 2023

Texans at Jets, Week 14 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Texans 30–6 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:48 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Xavier Hutchinson), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Houston Texans 6
New York Jets 30

December 10, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Texans −3.5

Luck index +35 Jets lucky · −35 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 3, Jets win 7.

  1. 1 HOU 20 NYJ 3
  2. 2 HOU 19 NYJ 10
  3. 3 HOU 19 NYJ 16
  4. 4 HOU 19 NYJ 21
  5. 5 HOU 9 NYJ 14
  6. 6 HOU 17 NYJ 25
  7. 7 HOU 5 NYJ 16
  8. 8 HOU 13 NYJ 27
  9. 9 HOU 3 NYJ 21
  10. 10 HOU 6 NYJ 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 35% of them, Jets 65%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+5.0%
Texans by 9–1611.7%
Texans by 1–817.1%
Level after regulation2.6%
Jets by 1–825.3%
Jets by 9–1619.9%
Jets by 17+18.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.3 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 24, without the luck Jets by 12.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 51 yds made · 69% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 55 yds made · 63% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 4 for 35 yards, Jets 8 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:48 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Xavier Hutchinson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% NYJ +3.6 pts
Q1 1:43 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% HOU +2.4 pts
Q2 13:32 Illegal Contact on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 5 yards +6% HOU +2.6 pts
Q2 12:47 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 4:47 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.2 pts
Q2 3:57 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 5 yards +2% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q3 13:07 False Start on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 5 yards · pre-snap +7% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 8:01 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.6 pts
Q3 6:41 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Will Anderson), 15 yards +3% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q3 0:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Tony Adams), 7 yards +4% HOU +2.1 pts
Q4 5:30 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Allen Lazard), 10 yards 0% HOU +0.6 pts
Q4 1:08 Encroachment on the Jets (Solomon Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.2 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:48 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Xavier Hutchinson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 198 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +12% NYJ NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 3:13 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% HOU HOU: Punt
3 Q1 2:29 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% NYJ HOU: Punt
4 Q2 13:32 Illegal Contact on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1978 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% HOU HOU: Punt
5 Q2 4:47 The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50False Start on the Jets, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q2 0:21 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q3 13:07 False Start on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 1581 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +7% HOU HOU: Punt
8 Q3 11:56 The Jets converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +11% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Connor McGovern (NYJ C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Carter Warren (NYJ T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Dalton Schultz (HOU TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • DeAndre Houston-Carson (HOU FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jarrett Patterson (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 3% · Jets 97%

Final margin
Jets by 24
Luck in points
11.3 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 12.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 35% · Jets 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2023 games · Texans · Jets

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