luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · January 6, 2024–January 7

Week 18 2023: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Steelers beat the Ravens 17–10 in a game they win 17% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 18 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Rams 21–20 @ 49ers 34% 58% Coin flip
Giants 27–10 vs Eagles 37% 51% Coin flip
Titans 28–20 vs Jaguars 40% 30% Lucky
Chiefs 13–12 @ Chargers 40% 88% Deserved
Jets 17–3 @ Patriots 43% 93% Deserved

Week 18 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Steelers W 17–10 @ Ravens 17% +83
2 Titans W 28–20 vs Jaguars 30% +70
3 Texans W 23–19 @ Colts 34% +66
4 Seahawks W 21–20 @ Cardinals 43% +57
5 Giants W 27–10 vs Eagles 51% +49
6 Bills W 21–14 @ Dolphins 52% +48
7 Rams W 21–20 @ 49ers 58% +42
8 Saints W 48–17 vs Falcons 60% +40
9 Lions W 30–20 vs Vikings 72% +28
10 Buccaneers W 9–0 @ Panthers 79% +21
11 Raiders W 27–14 vs Broncos 82% +18
12 Chiefs W 13–12 @ Chargers 88% +12
13 Packers W 17–9 vs Bears 90% +10
14 Bengals W 31–14 vs Browns 93% +7
15 Jets W 17–3 @ Patriots 93% +7
16 Cowboys W 38–10 @ Commanders 99% +1
17 Commanders L 10–38 vs Cowboys 1% −1
18 Browns L 14–31 @ Bengals 7% −7
19 Patriots L 3–17 vs Jets 7% −7
20 Bears L 9–17 @ Packers 10% −10
21 Chargers L 12–13 vs Chiefs 12% −12
22 Broncos L 14–27 @ Raiders 18% −18
23 Panthers L 0–9 vs Buccaneers 21% −21
24 Vikings L 20–30 @ Lions 28% −28
25 Falcons L 17–48 @ Saints 40% −40
26 49ers L 20–21 vs Rams 42% −42
27 Dolphins L 14–21 vs Bills 48% −48
28 Eagles L 10–27 @ Giants 49% −49
29 Cardinals L 20–21 vs Seahawks 57% −57
30 Colts L 19–23 vs Texans 66% −66
31 Jaguars L 20–28 @ Titans 70% −70
32 Ravens L 10–17 vs Steelers 83% −83