luckadjusted

2023 NFL season · January 13, 2024–January 15

Wild Card 2023: who deserved to win

1 of 6 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Lions beat the Rams 24–23 in a game they win 39% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Wild Card 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Packers 48–32 @ Cowboys 30% 66% Deserved
Texans 45–14 vs Browns 43% 91% Deserved
Buccaneers 32–9 vs Eagles 43% 82% Deserved

Luck ranking, wild card

Every team’s luck index this round: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Lions W 24–23 vs Rams 39% +61
2 Chiefs W 26–7 vs Dolphins 62% +38
3 Packers W 48–32 @ Cowboys 66% +34
4 Buccaneers W 32–9 vs Eagles 82% +18
5 Texans W 45–14 vs Browns 91% +9
6 Bills W 31–17 vs Steelers 92% +8
7 Steelers L 17–31 @ Bills 8% −8
8 Browns L 14–45 @ Texans 9% −9
9 Eagles L 9–32 @ Buccaneers 18% −18
10 Cowboys L 32–48 vs Packers 34% −34
11 Dolphins L 7–26 @ Chiefs 38% −38
12 Rams L 23–24 @ Lions 61% −61