luckadjusted

Wild Card 2023 · January 13, 2024

Browns at Texans, Wild Card 2023: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Browns 45–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Browns: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:21 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 18 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Cleveland Browns 14
Houston Texans 45

January 13, 2024 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +9 Texans about even · −9 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 1, Texans win 9.

  1. 1 CLE 17 HOU 9
  2. 2 CLE 7 HOU 10
  3. 3 CLE 34 HOU 40
  4. 4 CLE 24 HOU 33
  5. 5 CLE 9 HOU 20
  6. 6 CLE 23 HOU 37
  7. 7 CLE 16 HOU 34
  8. 8 CLE 31 HOU 52
  9. 9 CLE 14 HOU 41
  10. 10 CLE 3 HOU 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Browns

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.

36 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Browns offenseEPA per play gained +0.11 +0.05 better by 0.06
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed +0.27 +0.02 worse by 0.25
Texans offenseEPA per play gained +0.27 +0.03 better by 0.24
Texans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.11 +0.10 worse by 0.01

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 9% of them, Texans 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.5%
Browns by 9–161.7%
Browns by 1–86.1%
Level after regulation0.9%
Texans by 1–815.1%
Texans by 9–1619.9%
Texans by 17+55.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 31, without the luck Texans by 27.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Browns 4 for 32 yards, Texans 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:19 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.5 pts
Q2 2:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Ronnie Hickman), 12 yards +4% HOU +1.8 pts
Q2 2:25 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +2% CLE +0.9 pts
Q3 11:34 False Start on the Texans (Blake Cashman), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.5 pts
Q3 8:15 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q4 13:27 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.3 pts
Q4 7:04 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.5 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:17 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% HOU CLE: Punt
2 Q1 11:08 D. Schultz dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 144 catchable balls before this +5% CLE HOU: Punt
3 Q1 10:14 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +4% CLE HOU: Punt
4 Q1 7:09 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +10% HOU HOU: Field goal
5 Q1 6:21 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% HOU HOU: Field goal
6 Q1 2:12 The Browns converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +4% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q3 6:21 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +18% HOU CLE: Opp touchdown
8 Q3 4:13 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +8% HOU CLE: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tank Dell (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Grant Delpit (CLE SS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cedric Tillman (CLE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dustin Hopkins (CLE K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Luke Wypler (CLE C), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Texans 100%

Final margin
Texans by 31
Luck in points
3.2 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 27.8
Replay with same day's form
Browns 9% · Texans 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Wild Card 2023 games · Browns · Texans

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